Italy vs Scotland predictions, Six Nations tips and odds
Italy’s frustrating inconsistency showed its better side a fortnight ago when they were one successful penalty kick away from their own historic win over France, which we hope will inspire them to another competitive showing here.
Rugby betting sites are expecting just that, separating the two sides by about 11 points at the naming of the teams.
Italy vs Scotland Tip: Another narrow win for Townsend’s troops
Scotland are on a run of four consecutive Six Nations games decided by a 1-12 point margin which started with a 26-14 home win over Italy in the final round of 2023.
On the basis of what the two sides showed in the last round, there’s not a great deal to suggest that might change here as long as the Azzurri don’t fall away horrifically as they can tend to do after a big performance.
The visiting side have named the same front row and have promoted three replacements to the starting XV in what is otherwise a fairly similar side to the one that overran England courtesy of a Duhan van der Merwe hat-trick.
The recent head-to-head history also points towards a win for Scotland of a similar margin.
Just one of the last five meetings between these sides saw Scotland achieve victory by beyond 12 points, which was in the 2021 edition of this tournament when Italy lost their five games by an average of nearly 37 points.
Given Scotland's form and their history against the Azzurri in the competition, we like the price of 7/4 with Betfred for a solid if unspectacular win for Townsend's men.
A solid start for Scotland
Scotland are on a run of three consecutive half-time leads in this tournament and betting apps have them at an understandably slim price to make it four on the spin against Italy.
Italy’s first half record in this tournament recently has been as woeful as their overall one, with a 17-14 lead over England in Round 1 this year the only of their last 25 Six Nations games in which they were in front at the break.
Since then they’ve scored just three first half points across their loss to Ireland and draw with France.
Across all international rugby since the start of 2023, Italy have constructed a first half try difference of -23 before half-time and +1 after it, suggesting they do their best work as the game wears on.
One only has to go back to their last game to confirm that. Whatever you’re anticipating the full-time result to be, this could be an option to take when picking your bet(s) for this encounter.
Duhan’s devastating effect
Stopping the South African-born Scottish sensation is at the top of every head coach’s game plan, but some have had greater success than others.
Recently compared to Jonah Lomu by one former English player, Van der Merwe is pursuing Stuart Hogg’s record of tries scored for Scotland despite having played only 37 Tests, and on his current trajectory would have seven more tries than Lomu at the 63-game mark that the great New Zealander finished on.
It might appear to be an exaggeration to say that his club and country are dependent on his success for their own, but the numbers back it up: out of Van der Merwe’s last ten appearances for Glasgow or Scotland, the team won the six in which he scored a try and lost the four where he did not.
The flying winger has been on the scoresheet in all three of his appearances against Italy and enters this round in stellar form. We’re sticking with him. He might be the favourite in terms of try-scoring markets, but with good reason.
This week, he’s taking on an Italian debutant in Louis Lynagh and could be primed to run rings around him as he has done to so many others in the tournament and during his Scotland career.
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After five years as a betting trader and several more as a sports writer, Aaron is dedicated to using his wealth of experience and devotion to statistical analysis to deliver punters all the information they need to try and make a winning call.
