Jerome Stakes 2023: Odds and analysis for Kentucky Derby prep

Saturday’s $150,000 Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct drew a field of eight 3-year-olds who will run a one-turn mile on the road to the 2023 Kentucky Derby. The top five finishers who are eligible will compete for Derby qualifying points (10-4-3-2-1).

The Jerome is the third stop of six on New York’s road to the Derby, with previous wins in the Champagne (G1) by Blazing Sevens, currently third in the Derby points list, and in the Remsen (G2) by Dubyuhnell, who is seventh on that list.

Horse Racing Nation staff. The Jerome is scheduled as race 8 of 10 with post time set for 4:14 p.m. EST.

1.Neural Network(3-1 – Cloud Computing – Chad Brown / Manny Franco – 1: 1-0-0 - $38,500) Neural Network was a debut winner in November at the Big A by five lengths after stalking the pace in a race for New York-breds. This son of Cloud Computing was a $120,000 yearling purchase by Klaravich Stables, one of Chad Brown’s most important clients and the owner of sire Cloud Computing. Neural Network gets the right setup for another run from a stalking position. Top choice.

2.Circling the Drain(10-1 – West Coast – Brittany Russell / Jevian Toledo – 2: 1-1-0 - $42,320) Circling the Drain ships up from Maryland, where he made two starts. The gelding was second in his debut after racing a couple of lengths behind the pace at Laurel Park going seven furlongs. Last month, he easily beat a field of maiden claimers by seven lengths with a front-end effort going two turns as a heavy favorite. Toss.

3.Valenzan Day(8-1 – Khozan – Linda Rice / Jose Gomez – 8: 3-2-1 - $158,500) This Florida-bred won his first start for trainer Rudy Rodriguez in May at Belmont. Valenzan Day then ran third in the Tremont before heading to Saratoga, where he was not competitive in the Sanford (G3) and the Saratoga Special (G2). After finishing second in a pair of allowances at Laurel, Valenzan Day beat a field of claimers at Aqueduct by seven lengths last month as the odds-on favorite and was claimed for $50,000 by Linda Rice. In his first start for Rice, whose barn had a fantastic Aqueduct meeting, he will try graded-stakes company again while stretching out to a mile for the first time. Live long shot.

4.Lugan Knight(4-1 – Goldencents – Michael McCarthy / Dylan Davis – 3: 1-1-1 - $93,275) Lugan Knight ships up from the Kentucky barn of Michael McCarthy. The son of Goldencents began his career in September at Churchill with a second-place finish and then broke his maiden against a full field at Keeneland in a sprint after a stalking trip. Most recently, Lugan Knight was third in an allowance at Churchill behind the horse that won the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park on New Year’s Day. Use underneath.

5.Andiamo a Firenze(6-1 – Speightstown – Kelly Breen / Kendrick Carmouche – 5: 2-2-1 - $233,966) Andiamo a Firenze, which is Italian for “let’s go to Florence,” was an early debut winner in June at Belmont Park. Since then, he became a stakes winner against New York-breds in the Funny Cide at Saratoga. Trainer Kelly Breen sent the son of Speightstown into-graded stakes races twice. He was third in the Sanford (G3) in his second career start, and then he earned two Derby points when he was fourth in the one-mile Champagne (G1) after setting the pace. Most recently, Andiamo a Firenze missed the win by a nose in the New York Breeders’ Futurity at Finger Lakes. He will be part of the early pace and will face the challenge of the mile distance. Use underneath.

6.Arctic Arrogance(2-1 – Frosted – Linda Rice / Jose Lezcano – 4: 2-2-0 - $233,400) Arctic Arrogance is another one of the New York-bred stakes winners. The gray son of Frosted broke his maiden at first asking against state-breds in September. He won the Sleepy Hollow during the Belmont at the Big A meeting going a one-turn mile after battling on the front end. Linda Rice moved him onto the Derby trail in the Remsen, where he once again set the pace but was overtaken in the stretch by a half-length. Arctic Arrogance picked up four Derby points in the Remsen, which was run at 1 1/8 miles. The cutback to a mile should be to his favor. Win contender.

7.General Banker(10-1 – Central Banker – James Ferraro / Eric Cancel – 8: 1-3-0 - $345,600) General Banker became a stakes winner in his eighth start in the seven-furlong New York Stallion Series at Aqueduct. On a muddy track he stalked the pace and drew off to win by more than eight lengths against a field of 11. That also was his maiden victory. The Jerome will be his first stakes against open company. Toss.

8.Narciso Dali(15-1 – Tamarkuz – Amira Chichakly / Katie Davis – 6: 1-1-1 - $93,750) Narciso Dali needed six starts to break his maiden, which happened last month at Aqueduct going the one-turn mile in a $75,000 claimer. He won that race on the front end by more than six lengths. There is plenty of speed in this field, and he is not likely to set the pace this time. Toss.

Summary: The field of eight in the Jerome has three winners of New York-bred stakes races, two horses with Derby points and a pair of horses who are stakes-placed.

Andiamo a Firenze, Arctic Arrogance and General Banker are the stakes winners, and the first two want to be part of the early pace where they will find a couple of other speed types. General Banker never has run against open company and might have distance limitations.

Keeping the fast pace in mind, Neural Network looks like the one who will benefit the most even though he only ran once. The Chad Brown runner impressed in his maiden victory and will be the top choice.