Jets vs. Maple Leafs picks and odds: Bet on Winnipeg’s goaltending in all-Canadian matchup

The Toronto Maple Leafs welcome in the Central Division-leading Winnipeg Jets on Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: With these two squads matching up evenly offensively and defensively, goaltending should be the deciding factor. Winnipeg’s receiving consistent, quality play at the position while Toronto’s struggling to see solid results.

Odds as of 9:12 a.m. on 01/19/2023.

Jets vs. Maple Leafs picks

Best Bet: Jets moneyline (+143)

Winnipeg and Toronto’s numbers are nearly identical entering this contest aside from one key statistic: team save percentage.

These squads have been spitting images of each other outside of the crease. Take a look at how both have performed in expected goals over the last week.

The Maple Leafs, by the slightest of margins, lead the Jets in all three of the above categories. Despite holding the smallest of edges in expected goals percentage, Toronto is just 1-2 across the last seven days while Winnipeg is 3-1.

The reason for that, as noted above, is goaltending.

Behind Connor Hellebuyck’s stellar play, the Jets own the ninth-best team save percentage (.929) in the NHL during this span, according to Natural Stat Trick. The Maple Leafs are right near the bottom at 30th (.842).

With all else fairly equal, bet on goaltending deciding this game.

Key stat: Winnipeg has won eight of its last 10 games.

Quick picks

Jets or tie - regular time (-117): For those not feeling quite as bold about Winnipeg’s prospects of winning, backing the Jets on the double chance market is a good way to assume less risk.

If they win the game in regulation or are tied through 60 minutes, your bet will cash.

Thanks to shaky goaltending, Toronto has won just two of the squad’s last four and four of the last eight. The Buds have gone to extra time in three of their last 11, though, which is a decent amount as of late.

Maple Leafs under 3.5 goals (-121): While Toronto’s goaltending has endured the brunt of the criticism in this blog, the offence isn’t exactly lighting the league on fire, either.

The Maple Leafs have scored three goals or fewer in three of their last four games.

The Jets, meanwhile, have held teams to three goals or fewer in three of their last four.