Jets vs. Maple Leafs prop picks: Bet on Ehlers to keep scoring

The Winnipeg Jets and Toronto Maple Leafs meet on Thursday night for the second time this season.

The pregame narrative: It’s important to keep the goaltending situations in mind for both teams when looking at the prop market. Toronto’s getting poor play between the pipes, boosting the outlook for Jets players. Winnipeg’s netminding is consistently stellar, dampening our forecast for a pair of Maple Leafs.

Odds as of 9:55 a.m. on 01/19/2023.

Jets vs. Maple Leafs prop picks

Best Bet: Rielly to not score 1+ point (+100)

Betting on a defenceman to not score a point at even money is a pretty good wager to make.

It’s an even better one when you consider that the blueliner’s going through a pretty bad scoring slump. Morgan Rielly did record a point in his most recent outing, snapping a four-game pointless streak. It brought his total up to four points across his last 11.

Historically, Rielly’s best avenue for scoring points has come via the power play. Looking at his 68-point campaign from 2021-22, you’ll see that more than a third (23) of his production came on the man advantage.

The Maple Leafs are now rolling out five forwards on their top power-play unit. This relegates Rielly to the second unit, a development that has hurt the rearguard’s chances of getting on the scoresheet.

Key stat: Rielly has failed to score a point in eight of his last 11 games.

Quick picks

Bunting to not score 1+ point (+104): Speaking of players going through scoring droughts, Michael Bunting’s right there with Rielly. He started the season with 29 points through 38 games but has now been held off the board in six of his last seven.

Winnipeg ranks ninth in team save percentage (.929) over the last week and Connor Hellebuyck will make this a difficult matchup for Toronto’s offence.

Ehlers to score 1+ point (-148): There’s a decent amount of juice to pay on this wager, but Nikolaj Ehlers’ play makes it worthwhile.

Since returning from an abdomen injury, the Danish forward has 10 points in seven games while only being held off the stat sheet once.

While opposing goaltending works against the Maple Leafs on Thursday, it shouldn’t for the Jets. Toronto is 30th in team save percentage (.842) over the last week of the season.