July Stakes: Timeform preview, tip and free racecard

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The July Stakes (14:25) for two-year-olds over six furlongs is one of the highlights on the opening day of Newmarket’s July Festival, with several promising youngsters in a field of nine.

‘Hot Trainer’ Aidan O’Brien won this for a second time in 2019 with Royal Lytham and has a likely type here in Mountain Bear (109p) who got off the mark at the second time of asking in a maiden at the Curragh just two weeks ago. Improving from his debut at the same track, Mountain Bear did well in the circumstances to beat his seventeen rivals as he raced in the unfavoured group when the field split early on, leading until before headway before regaining the advantage over a furlong out and keeping on to beat Chandigah a length. That useful effort earned Mountain Bear the ‘Horse In Focus’ flag and he can improve again here.

Setting the standard is Richard Fahey’s colt Malc (116) after his fine second in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot. The winner of a novice at Carlisle on his debut in May, Malc was a 66/1 shot for the Norfolk but went down to one at even longer odds, Valiant Force. Much improved from his debut, Malc stayed on in the final furlong to take second, a length and a quarter behind the winner, seeing the race out well and looking sure to stay the additional furlong here.

Purosangue (105p) was another to earn the ‘Horse In Focus’ flag, doing so on his winning debut for Andrew Balding who won this with Tactical three years ago. Purosangue ran out an impressive winner of a novice over five furlongs at Haydock last month, making all and quickening clear in the final furlong to beat Instant Recall by four lengths. His stable’s two-year-olds tend to improve a lot for their debut so he’s very much respected.

Lake Forest (102p), trained by William Haggas, also has the ‘Horse In Focus’ from making a successful start to his career at the same course last month. He looked a good prospect in overcoming greenness and coming from last to first in a race that wasn’t that strongly run, quickening clear on leading approaching the final furlong to beat Watcha Matey two and three quarter lengths. Lake Forest also earned the ‘Sectional Timing’ flag for that effort and looks sure to progress.

Chief Mankato (102p) is also the winner of his only start for Charlie Hills. He beat some subsequent winners when successful in a novice at Windsor at the end of May when staying on to collar a pair who had forced the pace, beating Inquisitively by three quarters of a length, and should improve on that.

Thunder Blue (108) for Dominic Ffrench Davis has a less progressive profile than some of these but has still had only three runs and is a good type physically. He’s also back at six furlongs here, having won a novice over the trip at Goodwood last month before finishing behind Malc in the Norfolk last time where he was fifth after making much of the running on the far side.

Jasour (95p) has more improvement to find than most but has made a promising start to his career for Clive Cox and landed the odds in a maiden at Nottingham last month on his second start, making all to beat the filly Painite by half a length.

Maximum Impact (106+) made an excellent start for Alice Haynes, winning by a wide margin on heavy ground on his debut at Leicester and following up in a conditions race at Ascot but he needs to bounce back from finishing last in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot last time where he was well backed but clearly not right. The tongue tie he wore there has been left off this time.

Brian Meehan is another trainer to have had success in this race in the past but his gelding Toca Madera (97) finished down the field behind a couple of these in the Norfolk Stakes, albeit racing on the unfavoured near-side. He’s got a bit to find on form, though, having got off the mark in a novice at Bath on his second start earlier in June.

Timeform analyst’s verdict

Preference is for Mountain Bear, who is in top hands and remains open to improvement on the back of his maiden success at the Curragh last month. Norfolk Stakes runner-up Malc is feared most with the step up in trip likely to be in his favour, whilst Purosangue hails from a yard whose juveniles tend to come on plenty from their first outing and is also much respected.

Timeform weight-adjusted ratings

116 Malc

109p Mountain Bear

108 Thunder Blue

106+ Maximum Impact

105p Purosangue

102p Chief Mankato

102p Lake Forest

97 Toca Madera

95p Jasour

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