Nassau Stakes: Timeform preview, tip and free racecard

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Thursday’s highlight at Goodwood is the Group 1 Nassau Stakes (15:35) for fillies over a mile and a quarter which sees a clash between the last two winners of the Prix de Diane, the ‘French Oaks’.

Preference is for the latest winner of that contest Blue Rose Cen (124p) who already has an excellent record for Christopher Head, proving herself indisputably the best three-year-old filly in France. She’s still on the upgrade and unexposed over this trip, looking better than ever on her first try beyond a mile at Chantilly in June, soon settling matters when quickening to lead two furlongs out and coming home four lengths clear.

That was Blue Rose Cen’s first start on firmer ground and she has plenty of form under softer conditions. She’s only been beaten twice in nine starts, once on her debut and on the other occasion when narrowly beaten by future Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Victoria Road in a listed race last season. A five-length winner of the Prix Marcel Boussac last year, Blue Rose Cen is in select company as a winner of that race and both the fillies’ classics in France and can land her fourth Group 1 here tackling older rivals for the first time.

Blue Rose Cen is therefore bidding to complete the same double accomplished last year by Nashwa (130) for John & Thady Gosden. After finding the Oaks trip stretching her stamina when third at Epsom, Nashwa went on to win the Prix de Diane and then followed up in the Nassau, showing a striking turn of foot from the rear to beat Aristia by a length and three quarters at Goodwood. That was on good to firm ground, but Nashwa showed she handles softer conditions when a good second to Place du Carrousel in the Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp last autumn.

Nashwa’s first two starts this year didn’t see her at her best but she more than made up for that dropped back to a mile last time in the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket where she produced a career-best effort, quickening clear on leading a furlong out to beat Remarquee by five lengths and earning the ‘Horse In Focus’ flag. That sets a good standard for Blue Rose Cen to beat.

The third Group 1 winner in the field is Above The Curve (123) for ‘Hot Trainer’ Joseph O’Brien. She won the Prix Saint-Alary at Longchamp and the Blandford Stakes at the Curragh last term and was only a short head behind Nashwa in the Prix de l’Opera but finished further behind her when both fillies contested the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. Above The Curve has won again in France this year, landing the Group 2 Prix Corrida at Saint-Cloud in May by two lengths from Mqse de Sevigne (winner of Sunday’s Prix Rothschild at Deauville), but she ran just respectably when third to Via Sistina in the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh last time. More testing conditions here won’t be a problem for her.

‘Hot Trainer’ Roger Varian steps Al Husn (122) up in class but she has earned the chance to take on better rivals after winning six of her last seven starts. Progressing from handicaps last autumn, Al Husn proved no match for Via Sistina in the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket on her reappearance but has won both her races since, a listed contest at Ayr and the Hoppings Stakes at Newcastle. She had to show improved form to beat Nashwa half a length last time but the odds-on favourite didn’t settle in the lead that day and may well prove a much tougher nut to crack this time.

The two other three-year-olds in the field are smart fillies themselves but face stiffer tasks. Caernarfon (117) was a listed winner at Newmarket for the Channon stable at two and has gone on to better things this year, finishing fourth in the 1000 Guineas and a much closer third in the Oaks and wasn’t discredited against less exposed colts last time when sixth to Waipiro in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Never Ending Story (117) for ‘Hot Trainer’ Aidan O’Brien looks the Coolmore second string to Above The Curve. She won the 1000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown in very testing conditions in the spring but has finished behind Blue Rose Cen in all three of their meetings to date, getting closest when four lengths second to her in the Prix de Diane. Since then, Never Ending Story has finished behind in the Pretty Polly Stakes and Falmouth Stakes, so has plenty to find to turn the tables on Nashwa too.

Timeform Analyst’s Verdict:

A much-anticipated clash between the last two Prix de Diane winners Blue Rose Cen and Nashwa. The former was having her first attempt at 1¼m when bolting up at Chantilly in June and can emulate Nashwa who followed up in this race last year. Nashwa looked better than ever when easily winning the Falmouth at Newmarket last month and is clear second pick ahead of Above The Curve.

Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings:

130 Nashwa

124p Blue Rose Cen

123 Above The Curve

122 Al Husn

117 Caernarfon

117 Never Ending Story

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