14:15 Ayr: Timeform preview, tip and free racecard
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Future Group 1 winners Garswood (2012), Quiet Reflection (2015) and Winter Power (2020) are the star names on the recent roll of honour for the Harry Rosebery Stakes (14:15), a listed race for two-year-olds run over five furlongs.
Only time will tell whether there is another Group 1 sprinter in the line-up for this year's renewal, but Purosangue (114) certainly has the best form as things stand having produced a useful effort to fill the runner-up spot in the Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood, running on well to pass the post just a neck behind the winner, Big Evs. That rival gave the form a boost when last seen winning the Flying Childers Stakes at Doncaster and there is nothing of that calibre in opposition today. Though below form in a listed race at York last time, Purosangue is worth another chance to confirm the promise of Goodwood, with the return to softer ground today sure to be in his favour.
Beautiful Diamond (110) is likely to emerge as the main danger for Karl Burke, who has the 'Hot Trainer' Flag to denote that his yard is in good nick. Third in the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot, Beautiful Diamond ran to a similar level when finishing fifth in the Lowther Stakes at York last month, shaping like the step up to six furlongs stretched her as she weakened out of the frame late on. Still beaten just a length and a quarter at the line, she holds solid each-way claims at the very least now dropping back to the minimum trip in these calmer waters.
Toca Modera (105) has a similar profile having already shown useful form at a higher level. He put up his best effort when finishing third in the July Stakes at Newmarket, doing well to be beaten only two lengths having raced closer to the strong gallop than ideal. He showed enough speed there to suggest he can be equally effective at the minimum trip and he's better judged on his Newmarket form having possibly found the testing conditions against him at Goodwood last time.
Mon Na Slieve (102) is all about speed and showed bundles of it again when lining up in a similar event at York last time, though ultimately he wasn't good enough as he weakened in the final 100 yards to pass the post around three lengths behind the winner. It's likely to be a similar story again this time, and so too for Bombay Bazaar (100), who got back on track when beaten three lengths into fourth in another listed race at Ripon last month. On that showing, he needs to take a step forward to be seriously competitive at this level, though.
The field is completed by Queen's Guard (94p) and Alfa Moonstone (86). Both horses have plenty to find with the form principals, but Queen's Guard is at least open to further improvement after just two starts and she impressed when getting off the mark at Yarmouth last time, quickly asserting in the final furlong to win by a length and a quarter. She is well worth a try at this level and not one to dismiss at bigger odds.
Timeform Analyst's Verdict:
Purosangue was going the right way prior to a slight blip when only second in a listed contest at York last time and, with the ground likely to come in his favour, he takes preference over Beautiful Diamond, who is closely matched with the selection on form. Queen's Guard is the type to do better still and looks an interesting outsider.
Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings:
114 Purosangue
110 Beautiful Diamond
105 Toca Modera
102 Mon Na Slieve
100 Bombay Bazaar
94p Queen's Guard
86 Alfa Moonstone
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