Juventus vs Napoli Prediction

Juventus vs Napoli Odds

Juventus are having a resurgent season after going through a couple of tough years, as they sit second in the Serie A table and trail Inter by just two points. They are currently on a nine match unbeaten streak and have turned into back into the dominant Juventus teams from years past.

Napoli are going through a little bit of a rough stretch at the moment. They are coming off a 3-0 loss to Inter that dropped them outside of the top four of the Serie A table. Rudi Garcia has been sacked and Napoli decided to bring Walter Mazzari back to the club. Their form hasn’t been great under Mazzari and they have a huge Champions League match against Braga on Tuesday.

Here is how I'm betting Juventus vs Napoli.

Juventus are having a resurgent season, currently sitting in second place in the Serie A table. What Massimiliano Allegri has kept the solid defensive low block in tact, but he has drastically improved Juventus’ offensive numbers. Juventus have had a much better plan going forward and it has highlighted the two things they do exceptionally well, dominating in wide areas to create chances via crosses and set pieces. 

They have completed the third-most crosses into the penalty area and have the second-highest xG per set piece. Allegri has put an emphasis on creating the highest quality chance possible and it’s paid off because only Inter have created more non-penalty xG than Juventus. 

The player that can be credited with Juventus’ offensive resurgence is Dušan Vlahović. His last two seasons at Juventus he’s only been a 0.45 xG per 90 minute striker, but this season he’s sitting at 0.66 xG per 90 minutes. He’s a fantastic aerial threat, which works well for a team like Juventus that creates a majority of their chances via crosses. 

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Napoli have regressed from their title winning season and it’s because of their defense. The loss of Kim-Min Jae at center back has been pretty drastic for Napoli’s ability to defend opposing center backs. They are currently seventh in npxG allowed, when last season they were near the top. Even more concerning is their defensive numbers when they've had face good offensive teams. Take a look at their xG allowed against some of the top sides this season.

There is also the manager conundrum that going on. Luciano Spalletti is now managing the Italian national team, Rudi Garica has been sacked and Walter Mazzari is now the manager. He is who brought Napoli back to prominence many years ago but he is essentially the Italian equivalent of Roy Hodgson. He’s traditionally has had his teams play out of a 3-5-2, but so far with Napoli he’s kept them in the same 4-3-3 principles.

The offensive numbers are still incredibly good for Napoli. They are second in npxG and first in shots per 90 minutes. Kvaratskhelia and Osimhen production numbers have not dropped off one bit, but they did only put up 0.6 xG against Inter last weekend.

Juventus vs Napoli

Prediction

This is a weird spot for Napoli coming off that poor performance and having a huge Champions League match against Braga coming up on Tuesday. The biggest thing in this match for them is can they stop Juventus when they get going in transition. I am not sure that they can and they definetly are going to struggle in the two areas where Juventus are best, completing crosses into the penalty area and being efficient on set pieces.

The market is also undervaluing this Juventus side, as they were home underdogs to Inter a few week ago, despite having the second-best underlying metrics in Serie A and most importantly a full healthy squad. As good as Kvaratskhelia and Osimhen are, Napoli's offensive performance against Inter last Sunday was a bit telling of how this match is going to go.

I have Juventus projected as a +104 home favorite, so I like the value on them here at home with two extra days rest.