#Keith Melrose

Pic D'Orhy (Harry Cobden) landed the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon last month As I scan the field for the Silviniaco Conti, one question keeps coming to mind: what on earth are you doing here? That is no slight on the quality of the runners, of whom four have won at this Grade 2 level and the other two have won Grade 3s. It is more to do with…

Roger Varian: trainer of Lord Paramount Stuart Williams' lean 2022 has belatedly started to right itself since the beginning of the all-weather season. Between the last meeting of the turf season on November 5 and the end of afternoon racing on Friday, Williams sent out 32 runners and nine of them won. That is the more winners than he trained…

One stride. That was the difference a wide draw made in the last running of the Dubai Sheema Classic in 2019, when Rey De Oro made it across to lead Magic Wand. He took 40 strides to the first bend, she took 39. In isolation this does not prove anything. Horses stride at different lengths and frequencies, but you would expect the much taller horse…

Messire Des Obeaux: won at the highest level over hurdles Paul Nicholls trained the winner of this race in 2021 and in the previous five runnings was responsible for the favourite. It is doubtful that any of those market leaders were as well handicapped as Magic Saint might be. Less than two years ago, Magic Saint finished second in the Silver…

Corrigeen Rock: makes the long trip to Sandown for Lucinda Russell Corrigeen Rock might have less than two miles to run in this race, but he will do over 900 in a horse box to get here and back to Kinross. It almost goes without saying that Lucinda Russell will not enter one at Sandown lightly and her record here underlines that: she is 3-16 at the…

The veterans' final has always been used as a gateway to big handicaps by a certain few - even going back to its first winner, Soll, who used the race as a Grand National prep. But such runners had been limited to one or two a year - until now. Look down the field of 18 - the biggest ever, if they all go to post - and there are potentially as many…

Gemirande: represents last year's winning connections Venetia Williams and Charlie Deutsch Since this 0-130 was introduced in 2015, all but one of the winners has returned a Racing Post Rating between 137 and 150. Considering RPRs and the BHA work to a similar scale, those high figures suggest this is a classy race for the grade and that punters…

Monmiral: the likely favourite for Paul Nicholls Weighing up Graded novice chases in the middle portion of the season has its unique challenges. Who do you side with: horses who have shown the most promise in their nascent chasing careers or those who have a generally larger body of work over hurdles which may not be as relevant? There is no…

Simply The Betts: can he go one better after finishing second in the race last year? In a normal season, the Paddy Power New Year's Day Handicap Chase would be the most winnable of the major handicap chases around 2m4f at Cheltenham. That was the lesson from findings presented in these pages before the December Gold Cup on December 10, but the fact…

These nine veterans have 170 runs over fences between them, but in terms of significant recent efforts three pieces of form stand out. First is the race won by Certainly Red (runs in the Mandarin at Newbury on Saturday) at Wincanton 30 days ago, run in unhelpfully foggy conditions. La Cavsa Nostra pulled up sometime before the runners reappeared on…

Newbury's Mandarin Chase has unearthed some real talent among staying chasers down the years Considering it has not been part of the Pattern since 1989, the Mandarin holds a strong roll of honour. Its first winner after demotion was Party Politics, with Jodami a couple of years down the line. Over the last 15 years or so it has become one of the…

Nothin To Ask: Fergal O'Brien's seven-year-old is two from two over fences Were it not for this race coming shortly after the Challow, it would be more widely recognised as an indicative formline. Since taking up its current spot on the card in 2017, winners have included De Rasher Counter and Paint The Dream, both subsequent winners of top…

Chantry House: drops in class for the Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase Into Overdrive started the season as perhaps the most exciting prospect ever to emerge from Mark Walford's underrated North Yorkshire yard. In two runs this year he has only advanced his peak Racing Post Rating by 1lb, but he has enhanced his reputation considerably and the…

Dean Ivory: trains fancied sprinter Yimou, who runs at Lingfield If you have spent any amount of time betting on the all-weather, you will know that the 5f track at Lingfield lends itself strongly to front-runners. Yet the numbers are so stark that it is worth laying them out again. In races with eight runners or more since the start of 2018, 26…

Immediately noticeable in this year's Superior Mile is the lack of established Group performers. Stormy Antarctic counts, but he is surrounded by improvers, many of whom appeal as having it in them to go past him. His best hope is the testing ground in which he has tended to excel. Three of the top four in this race on adjusted RPRs, excepting…

The average winner of the opening-day highlight of Cheltenham's December Gold Cup meeting over the last ten years has been a nine-year-old, on their 17th chase start, beating eight rivals. Add in the fact only half went off at single-figure odds for their next race and there are definite trends that do not sit all that comfortably with the…

There is a simple but effective example in the Plate of the sort of trends worth noting and those that are stories, which are of use to the casual viewer but not to punters. The link has been made from Celebre D'Allen to Salut Flo and Ballynagour, who both won this race in the same colours early in the 2010s. You would have heard less often that…

The Commonwealth Cup has moved on from being racing's new big thing. It is legitimately running with the Classics now as a vital Group 1 for three-year-olds. It has reached the point where it is necessary to write down the stats just to keep up, as in the attached graphic. The seven runnings of the race have already produced 24 wins and 14…

Poetic Flare: was an impressive winner of the St James's Palace Poetic Flare and Palace Pier, winners on Royal Ascot's opening day, could clash for the first time in the Group 1 Qatar Sussex Stakes at Glorious Goodwood on July 28. Who do our experts prefer? At the prices in the Sussex Stakes, I'd take a chance on Poetic Flare. I was absolutely…

With the Tingle Creek in three weeks one of the few remaining genuine championship races run in Britain before March, the stakes are higher than usual in the two-mile chases at this time of year. Greaneteen will be defending champion at Sandown and also the leader in the clubhouse after his mighty handicap performance in last week's Haldon Gold…

In a year when many big handicaps have struggled to provide a full field, the Balmoral Handicap bucks the trend. The last in at declarations time was the 100-rated Orbaan, who was also in at the foot of the weights when winning July's Golden Mile, but is 13lb higher now. First reserve is Mums Tipple and that this race can attract him, as well as…

So much of the Royal Hunt Cup comes down to the draw. This year, we have two more or less novel guides as to how things might pan out. The main one is obviously the Silver Hunt Cup, which opens Wednesday's card. Tuesday's first race, the Buckingham Palace Handicap is also a handy guide and on the surface its conclusion was pretty emphatic. The…

At a neutral venue, you would fancy the highly likeable and adaptable Highfield Princess as a more likely winner than Golden Pal. That is no definitive comment on their abilities, it is simply that she has built her record under a wider spread of conditions, from steadily run 6½f races like the Maurice de Gheest to a soundly run Nunthorpe. This…

Sea La Rosa: a strong fancy for the Lillie Langtry Stakes William Haggas knows all too well after this week that horses tend to be judged on the company they keep. Some continue to be down on his stable star Baaeed due to his opposition's stubborn refusal to be better racehorses. At least Haggas gets to enjoy the flip side in the Lillie…

Happy Romance and Sean Levey (near) win the 2021 Hackwood Stakes Since the establishment of British Champions Day, the Hackwood Stakes has forged a close link with the big end-of-season meeting. The Diadem became the Champions Sprint in 2011, and since then four of its 11 winners had run in the same season's Hackwood. Two did the double, Deacon…

Fiddlerontheroof (left): finished a clear second to Cloudy Glen in the Ladbrokes Trophy Out of nowhere, a race that some might have taken as a veterans' handicap going by its roll call could have a bearing on this year's Gold Cup, Grand National, or both. That hinges mostly on Fiddlerontheroof, who will be seen for the first time since finishing a…

Sea Of Class (right) giving Enable a scare in the 2018 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe You can place bets on Sunday's Arc with your favourite bookmakers on the Racing Post. Sign in with your favourite bookmaker via the Bookmakers tab at the top of your screen, and then bet directly from our racecards by clicking the odds buttons.

Small-field races are not undesirable by definition. If a field of four contains the last two winners of the Champion Chase and last season's runner-up, detractors would struggle to improve it without either padding or asking for the moon on a stick. The Shloer Chase has been warmly embraced since its inception in 2009, no surprise given it is at…

Tactical wins the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot While the July Stakes is sometimes regarded as the first test of the Royal Ascot juvenile form, the average RPR recorded by the winner is about 1lb lower than in the Coventry. Even though just three weeks tends to separate the races, these are ever-developing two-year-olds and that is…