Kentucky Bowl Rundown: Big Game Week

Gameday Weather: South Carolina vs. Kentucky

The expected happened last week in Lexington. Top-10 Alabama rolled Kentucky. The expected happened last week in Columbia. South Carolina rolled last-place Vanderbilt to stay alive in the bowl hunt. Now the two SEC East teams will meet in Week 12, and this game could mean a lot when the bowl selection process arrives.

Kentucky (6-4, 3-4) is behind every bowl-eligible team in the SEC East after head-to-head losses against Georgia, Missouri, and Tennessee. Another SEC loss could put Kentucky behind South Carolina (4-6, 2-5) and potentially Auburn (6-4, 3-4) when bowl selection time comes.

Saturday night at Williams-Brice Stadium will be a big one. Before the penultimate week of the college football season arrives, let’s take a look at where Kentucky stands in the bowl process.

Where the SEC stands entering Week 12

Entering this weekend, the SEC is now up to nine bowl-eligible teams after Texas A&M smoked Mississippi State 51-10 to get to 6-4, and Auburn handled Arkansas on the road. The Aggies will be without Jimbo Fisher, that does not mean that they won’t go bowling.

Let’s take a look at the standings.

• Locks: Georgia (10-0), Alabama (9-1), Ole Miss (8-2), Missouri (8-2), Tennesse (7-3), LSU (7-3), Kentucky (6-4), Auburn (6-4), Texas A&M (6-4)
• Bubble: Florida (5-5), Mississippi State (4-6), South Carolina (4-6)
• Eliminated: Arkansas (3-7), Vanderbilt (2-9)

Kentucky was joined by Auburn and Texas A&M at 6-4 in Week 11. Florida is in the danger zone after a road loss to LSU. The Gators still have top-10 Missouri (road) and Florida State (home) on the schedule. Mississippi State will need to beat Southern Miss and Ole Miss. South Carolina must pull off consecutive home upsets over Kentucky and Clemson to get to bowl eligibility.

I would currently project the SEC to remain at nine bowl-eligible teams.

SEC bowl tie-ins

Now let’s take a look at where the Southeastern Conference will slot member institutions next month.

• Orange Bowl: SEC champ goes if not in the College Football Playoff (Tier 1)
• Citrus Bowl (Tier 1)
• ReliaQuest Bowl (Tier 2)
• Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Tier 2)
• Gator Bowl (Tier 2)
• Music City Bowl (Tier 2)
• Texas Bowl (Tier 2)
• Liberty Bowl (Tier 2)
• Birmingham Bowl (Tier 3)
• Gasparilla Bowl (Tier 3)

The College Football Playoff gets first dibs. After that, an SEC team can work its way into one of the five New Year’s Six slots. The SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame split the Orange Bowl tie-in. The highest-ranked team will make the trip to South Florida. As we stand right now, that will likely be the Ohio State-Michigan loser.

Any 10-2 SEC should have a great shot at landing in the New Year’s Six. Assuming only one SEC team makes the playoff, there are at least three teams alive for New Year’s Six contention (Alabama, Ole Miss, and Missouri,). The Tigers currently appear to have the inside track.

Kentucky is pretty much a lock to land in Tier 2 which is known as the “Pool of 6“. The SEC office will work with schools to find the best landing spots. Teams will not be able to go to repeat locations in this group. Therefore, Kentucky cannot go to Music City, Ole Miss cannot go to Texas, Mississippi State cannot go to ReliaQuest, and South Carolina cannot go to Gator this year.

Now let’s take a stab at projections.

KSR’s Bowl Projections

Assuming projected betting favorites win every game from here through the regular season, this is what we project the SEC draw to look like come Selection Sunday.

• Sugar Bowl: Georgia (13-0) in College Football Playoff semifinal
• Fiesta Bowl: Alabama (11-2) in New Year’s Six at-large bid
• Cotton Bowl: Missouri (10-2) in New Year’s Six at-large bid
• Citrus Bowl: Ole Miss (10-2)
• ReliaQuest Bowl: LSU (9-3)
• Gator Bowl: Tennessee (8-4)
• Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Kentucky (7-5)
• Texas Bowl: Texas A&M (7-5)
• Music City Bowl: Auburn (7-5)

Ole Miss would be the wild card in this situation. There is a chance that the Rebels could sneak into Peach Bowl to play the Group of Five selection, but they would need Penn State to drop a game.

As things stand right now, Lane Kiffin’s team would be the clear top choice for the Citrus Bowl. After that, conference record would give LSU the next selection that should land the Tigers in the ReliaQuest Bowl. Tennessee then gets the Gator Bowl. Once to the 7-5 teams, Texas A&M gets the Texas Bowl due to location, and Kentucky cannot go to Music City again. That means the Wildcats would make the trip to Charlotte in this scenario.

Kentucky would meet an ACC foe in Charlotte. Duke is a popular projection pick. Boston College, Miami, and Virginia Tech are also possibilities.