Week 0 SEC bowl projections: Welcome back, college football!

Welcome back, college football!

228 days ago, Georgia throttled TCU in a game that few expected to be close. Now, the SEC is set to kick off its 2023 schedule the same way it kicked off 2022 – with Vanderbilt taking on Hawai’i. Though this time it will be played in Nashville under the careful watch of a few excavators.

Everything leads to the national title game between the winners of the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl CFP semifinals, rotated from the Fiesta Bowl and Peach Bowl in 2022.

A lot can happen in 136 days. This time last year many lauded Texas A&M as a top-10 team in the country. Unfortunately for Jimbo Fisher, the Aggies finished 5-7 and missed out on a bowl appearance entirely.

This is a bowl projections piece, not a soliloquy about Texas A&M. But for what it’s worth, I think Texas A&M will be one of the more interesting teams to follow at the start of the season. True to Week 0 bowl projection style, I’ll throw the weighted dart and put them in the ReliaQuest Bowl against Iowa, which is also looking to solve its offensive woes heading into 2023.

Let’s move to the top.

Georgia could be challenged twice, maybe 3 times in 2023 ahead of bowl season: In the SEC Championship game, at Tennessee on Nov. 18 and perhaps once more during the season if they play a bad game like 2022’s near disaster against Mizzou (think Kentucky, Ole Miss, etc). I like those odds for a 3rd straight return to the CFP against a team looking for some revenge from last season in Ohio State.

Alabama, LSU and Tennessee should be the contenders for the 2-4 spots in the SEC this year. I’ll keep it in exactly that order for now, with Alabama advancing to the Orange Bowl, LSU grabbing a spot in the Peach and Tennessee faltering slightly without Hendon Hooker for a spot in the Citrus Bowl. We’ll see if Joe Milton has anything to say about that.

Here’s where we run into our first change in the 2023 bowl lineup. The Mayo Bowl will be played between the SEC and ACC this season after the B1G faced off against the ACC in 2022. The Mayo Bowl and the Las Vegas Bowl rotate between the SEC and B1G such as this each year.

Moving on.

Let me go ahead and offer an apology to Florida fans. The Gators and Commodores were the only teams left off of Week 0 projections. Vanderbilt hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2018’s Texas Bowl loss and I don’t see that changing this year.

Florida, however, will really struggle to make a bowl with their non-conference schedule how it is. Utah and Florida State should both finish the season as top 25 teams and Florida’s only cupcakes in the non-con are McNeese and Charlotte.

Assuming both Utah and FSU will take care of business, they’ll have to find 4 wins from: Georgia, at LSU, at Kentucky, at South Carolina, Arkansas (home, but off a bye), at Missouri, Vanderbilt (there’s one!) and in The Swamp vs. Tennessee. It’s certainly possible, but I don’t adore the Gators’ odds here with most swing games coming on the road.

Let’s see what Week 0 brings.

SEC college football bowl projections prior to Week 0

Sugar Bowl (Playoff semifinal): Georgia vs. Ohio State

Orange Bowl: Alabama vs. Florida State

Peach Bowl: LSU vs. Texas

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl: Tennessee vs. Wisconsin

ReliaQuest Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Iowa

Mayo Bowl: Kentucky vs. Pitt

Music City Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Illinois

Gator Bowl: South Carolina vs. Miami

Liberty Bowl: Arkansas vs. Oklahoma State

Texas Bowl: Auburn vs. Oklahoma

Birmingham Bowl: Mississippi State vs. Kansas

Gasparilla Bowl: Mizzou vs. BYU