Why Auburn’s loss to New Mexico State may not have a big impact on its bowl selection

First things first: this is all going to figure itself out.

But Auburn didn’t necessarily book itself a ticket back to the Birmingham Bowl with a stunning 31-10 upset loss to New Mexico State was just that, stunning.

Given results elsewhere and contractual obligations, it also may not wind up taking a significant effect on Auburn’s ultimate bowl selection.

Why? Auburn just blew its best chance on paper to get a seventh win. Alabama next week would of course project as the more difficult opponent compared to New Mexico State. That should mean a knockdown in the SEC standings.

It does, but maybe not much.

Last week, many of Auburn’s bowl projections focused on the Music City Bowl, the Liberty Bowl or the Texas Bowl. A representative from the Gator Bowl told AL.com that their committee has high interest in Auburn, which has not been to the Gator Bowl in more than 50 years. The Gator Bowl has sent committee members out to watch Auburn games this season and meet Auburn’s athletic administration staff.

But that doesn’t mean that’s where Auburn is going to end up. The SEC bowl selection process is complicated and gives the league office and the schools more power in the selection than the bowls themselves.

A quick explainer here: First, SEC teams are picked for the College Football Playoff should any be deemed worthy. Then, if any SEC team is selected for one of the remaining New Year’s Six bowl games, that team(s) is next in line.

The Sugar Bowl normally takes an SEC team, but the Sugar Bowl is a College Football Playoff game this year. The Orange Bowl will have an ACC team face either a Big Ten or SEC team and an SEC team would then be eligible for an at-large spot in a New Year’s Six game.

The Citrus Bowl then takes its pick of SEC teams after New Year’s Six games. After the Citrus Bowl, the next six bowl-eligible SEC teams are divided up between the ReliaQuest Bowl, Mayo Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Texas Bowl, Gator Bowl or Music City Bowl.

After those games, the Birmingham Bowl or Gasparilla Bowl may come into play.

So now looking toward a likely 6-6 record and a huge blemish on its resume, Auburn would seem to be in line for Birmingham as a low-end pick.

Well, one problem: the SEC might not have enough bowl-eligible teams to fill out the pool of six.

Alabama and Georiga are likely headed to New Year’s Six games as things stand. Missouri, after surviving a scare against Florida on Saturday, seems in line for a potential New Year’s Six bid, too. That would then slot Ole Miss into the Citrus Bowl, and leave five teams (LSU, Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn and Texas A&M) for the six remaining slots.

Mississippi State, Florida and South Carolina will all have a chance to play for bowl eligibility next week. Of those three, Florida facing a Florida State team that is likely to be without star quarterback Jordan Travis seems to be most likely to get that win. Mississippi State hosts Ole Miss and South Carolina hosts Clemson.

If more than one of those teams wins next week, the bowl situation becomes more precarious.

For the sake of projections, we’ll assume chalk based on betting odds on rivalry week and that means Auburn is safely within that pool of six.

Alright, so let’s have some fun. That scenario could play out with a bowl projection as follows. These projections factor in how recently a team may have appeared in the specific bowl game as well as geography.

ReliaQuest Bowl: LSU (9-3)

Mayo Bowl: Tennessee (8-4)

Texas Bowl: Texas A&M (7-5)

Liberty Bowl: Kentucky (6-6)

Gator Bowl: Auburn (6-6)

That scenario does leave the Music City Bowl left out. Tennessee has recently been, so has both Kentucky and Auburn. But let’s take another scenario: Florida beating Florida State:

Reliaquest Bowl: LSU (9-3)

Mayo Bowl: Tennessee (8-4)

Texas Bowl: Auburn (6-6)

Gator Bowl: Florida (6-6)

Music City Bowl: Texas A&M (7-5)

Liberty Bowl: Kentucky (6-6)

Auburn was moved to the Texas Bowl in this scenario because Florida is a logical fit for the Gator Bowl in Jacksonville. Texas A&M certainly is a better geographic fit for the Texas Bowl, but Auburn had been to the Music City Bowl more recently than Texas A&M. That part is purely subjective and could be changed on bowl selection day.

In either of these scenarios, there won’t be a bowl-eligible SEC team for the Gasparilla or Birmingham Bowls. Neither of those bowl games are required to take an SEC team because a scenario like this without enough bowl-eligible teams could play out.

It would be up to Florida, Mississippi State and South Carolina to cause some chaos with their seasons on the line next week.

Matt Cohen covers Auburn sports for AL.com. You can follow him on X at @Matt_Cohen_ or email him at [email protected]