Kentucky Derby fair odds: There is 1 horse who is a solid play

One of the lessons I learned from Rich Strike winning the Kentucky Derby last year is that nothing is more important than horses well meant for this race.

That means you cannot miss prep races, cannot miss training, cannot lack any seasoning to fire your best shot going 1 1/4 miles against the best dirt 3-year-olds. Rich Strike looked every bit of at least 50-to-1 on paper, but he did check the most fundamental boxes.

So, before we get to why I like Tapit Trice, here are my stone-cold throw outs:

Kingsbarns and Mage because neither ran as a 2-year-old, and horses who did not race at two are 0-for-10 with none better than a 10th-place finish since Justify won the Triple Crown in 2018.

Derma Sotogake and Continuar because no horse who prepped in the United Arab Emirates has hit the board in the Kentucky Derby, let alone win.

And Confidence Game because the layoff and lack of a race beyond 1 1/16 miles makes it impossible for him to have the necessary foundation to win this race. I had similar feelings about Destin in 2016 when he went straight to the Kentucky Derby after winning the Tampa Bay Derby but did not mind that one in the Belmont Stakes (second to Creator), and I would take a similar approach with Confidence Game in future legs of the Triple Crown.

As for Tapit Trice, well, he checks all the fundamental boxes and then adds a very important one: he's fast. Figures wise, Tapit Trice is not the fastest horse in the race to date, but he's consistently fast and has shown development that – given his breeding, trainer and versatile run style – indicates he can move forward in the Kentucky Derby.

There's a small rub that he is 5-1 on my fair odds and 5-1 on the morning line. Technically, at exactly fair value this isn't a tremendous opportunity, but it's the Kentucky Derby and we're tossing 25 percent of the field (see above) plus two others (Jace's Road and Raise Cain). Based on their morning-line prices, those seven horses will have 25 percent to 30 percent of the win pool and maybe around 20 percent of the exotics pools, so I'm comfortable leaning on Tapit Trice.

The only other two horses who are likely overlays based on my fair odds compared to the morning line are the Santa Anita Derby (G1) pair of Practical Move and Skinner. The former won that race and is 10-1 on the morning line but 8-1 on my fair odds, so he is an "A," and Skinner is 20-1 on both the morning line and my fair odds. As the highest priced horse I'm excited about with likely value to boot, he is an "A" for me as well.