Kentucky Derby prep fair odds: Nysos will be over-bet in Lewis
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert trains a third of the horses in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita Park, making the one-mile race for 3-year-olds more of a Preakness Stakes prep than it is for Kentucky Derby 2024.
Baffert is barred from racing at Churchill Downs Inc. racetracks, so horses he trains are ineligible for Kentucky Derby points.
On fair odds, I give Baffert a 70.5 percent chance of winning this race, which is about 2-5. Of course, one horse in particular, is the primary reason for that short price on the theoretical entry with undefeated graded-stakes winner Nysos given an even-money chance by yours truly.
By champion 2-year-old and Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist, Nysos has won both starts by a combined 18 3/4 lengths. Baoma Corp, which paid $550,000 for the colt at a 2-year-olds-in-training sale last year, elected not to move the horse from Baffert in order to target the Derby. Two turns and the style that jockey Flavian Prat will employ stretching out are legitimate questions, but he just seems better than these.
The Lewis is the penultimate leg of the coast-to-coast Pick 5 that ends with another Triple Crown prep race with a short price. The Holy Bull (G3) features champion Breeders’ Cup winner Fierceness.
This $1 minimum, non-jackpot wager with a 15 percent takeout has produced overlaid payouts all year. While closing a sequence with a pair of odds-on horses isn’t sexy, if you have a reason to oppose favorites in the previous three legs, this is a bet to target if you share my enthusiasm for Nysos and Fierceness.
