Kentucky Derby odds: New favorite in Vegas ... and Nysos?
Dornoch replaced Fierceness as the Las Vegas futures favorite for Kentucky Derby 2024, but it was a horse not among the 192 betting choices who made noise from the outside.
Nysos, who won by 7 1/2 lengths Saturday in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita, would have soared into the favorite’s role if only he were eligible for the Derby.
“I probably would have Nysos around 8-1 to 10-1,” said Paul Zilm, who writes the racing futures at Circa in downtown Las Vegas.
Caesars would have shortened him even more.
“Probably 4-1,” said Paul Bach, the racing specialist at Caesars. “Maybe a hard look at 7-2. It was pretty impressive.”
Nysos was 23-1 at Circa and 15-1 at Caesars just before his trainer Bob Baffert told the Los Angeles Times early last week that he and his client owners would not move any of his 3-year-olds to stables that are welcome in the Derby. Baffert remains under an indefinite Churchill Downs suspension that began when Medina Spirit failed a post-Derby drug test in 2021.
Bach said Caesars would have “bumped all other contenders a couple points” if Nysos still had been in the futures market.
Fierceness, the Eclipse Award winner who finished third as the 1-5 favorite Saturday in the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park, drifted from 9-1 to 13-1 at Circa Sports and from 8-1 to 10-1 at Caesars Sportsbook to become the second choice in Las Vegas.
Dornoch, the Remsen (G2) winner who is expected to make his 2024 debut next month in the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream, shortened Wednesday into the consensus favorite’s role in Nevada. Circa cut him from 15-1 to 9-1. Caesars took him from 10-1 to 17-2, or plus 850.
Even with the change at the top, Zilm and Bach were not reading any market panic into Fierceness’s disappointing performance Saturday.
“I need to see another clunker from Fierceness before I (lengthen his odds) too far,” Zilm said. “We have decent liability on him, and he’s got the (Derby qualifying) points and likely will accrue more.
If Nysos remained in the market, Circa would have put “Fierceness likely up closer to 15-1 or 16-1,” Zilm said, adding that other contenders shorter than 25-1 might have been priced with longer odds.
Three of the Derby prep winners Saturday were among the biggest market movers this week. Holy Bull upset victor Hades was posted at 90-1 at Caesars and was shortened from 175-1 to 23-1 at Circa. Uncle Heavy opened at 150-1 at Circa and 125-1 at Caesars thanks to his triumph in the Withers (G3) at Aqueduct. Mystik Dan was cut from 125-1 to 95-1 at Caesars and from 200-1 to 50-1 at Circa after he splashed to victory in the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn.
Four horses were added and 19 dropped in the past week, leaving these 192 in the Kentucky Derby futures for Nevada bettors at Caesars Sportsbook and Circa Sports. They are listed in order of their best odds Wednesday morning.
