Kentucky Derby odds: Exit of Baffert horses shakes up futures
Even as consensus favorite Fierceness stands on the verge ofhis 3-year-old debut this weekend, it is the absence of 14 horses from thestable of ineligible trainer Bob Baffert that stands out in updated Las Vegasfutures for Kentucky Derby 2024.
Baffert told the Los Angeles Times on Monday that noneof his horses would be transferred by their owners to trainers who are eligiblefor the Derby. That led to their being dropped immediately from the Nevadafixed-odds market. It also created a ripple effect.
“Didn’t anticipate this,” said Paul Bach, who writes theracing futures for Caesars Sportsbook in Nevada. “That’s why I had to adjustthe odds on 20 horses.”
Among them was Fierceness, the Eclipse Award winner who willbe favored to win for trainer Todd Pletcher on Saturday in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park andmathematically clinch his place in the May 4 classic at Churchill Downs. Caesarstook him from a 12-1 joint favorite to its sole, 8-1 top choice.
Rival sportsbook Circa, based in downtown Las Vegas, held Fiercenessfirm as its 9-1 favorite.
“I did start to get a sense there would be few if any horsestransferred,” said Paul Zilm, the racing oddsmaker at Circa. “Our pricing wasmostly in line. I made small adjustments (Monday) when the news broke, and weremoved the Baffert horses. Those moves did not involve Fierceness, Dornoch orSierra Leone, who are still all priced where they were the last few days.”
The dropping of the Baffert horses created an early win forthe bookmakers. Nysos, the likely favorite Saturday for the Robert B. Lewis(G3) at Santa Anita, was 23-1 last week at Circa and 15-1 at Caesars. Muth,whom Baffert told the Times would be pointed to the Rebel (G2) on Feb.24 at Oaklawn, was 28-1 at Circa and 12-1 at Caesars.
Asked how much of the Caesars pool was invested in Bafferthorses, Bach said, “I’m going to say about 15 percent. ... The biggestliability was on Nysos and then Pilot Commander. After that it was spread outpretty evenly.”
Pilot Commander, who was 35-1 at Caesars and 60-1 at Circa,was considered a possibility by the Santa Anita racing office for the Bob Lewis,which will be drawn Wednesday afternoon.
“We wrote a good amount of money and tickets on Nysos, Muthand Maymun,” Zilm said at Circa. “The others drew a little attention but not aton.”
Maymun, whose debut win Jan. 20 at Santa Anita earned him a94 Beyer Speed Figure, according to Daily Racing Form, was 28-1 at Circaand 30-1 at Caesars.
Bach cut the odds for 20 of the top 22 choices at Caesars.Zilm shortened only seven of Circa’s top 15. Locked, whom Pletchertold Horse Racing Nation would make his 2024 debut at the Sam F. Davis(G3) at Tampa Bay Downs, went from 20-1 to 17-1 at Circa and from 22-1 to 15-1at Caesars.
“Being more than three months out, there is still so muchtime,” Zilm said. “Results on the track will start to sort themselves out.Undoubtedly, there will be some injuries along the way, too, so at this point,we will continue on as I believe we normally would.”
Baffert was suspended indefinitely by Churchill Downs Inc. aftera positive drug test led to the disqualification of Medina Spirit as the 2021Derby winner. In 2022 and 2023 some of his clients moved their horses to eligibletrainers, mostly to his former assistant Tim Yakteen.
Now that Baffert has declared his horses will not be on themove this spring, Zilm said there may be a certain stability that comes overthe Derby market.
“For the first time in three years we won’t have to waitlonger into the prep season to find out on any transfers,” he said. “For thepurposes of futures, I think that’s a good thing.”
Despite his not being eligible for Derby qualifying, Baffertwill continue to enter his horses in preps such as the Holy Bull and Bob Lewisthis weekend. Bach suggested that points that would be vacated by Bafferthorses could lead to a Kentucky Derby winner carrying long odds May 4.
“Looks like,” Bach said, “we have a good shot at another RichStrike.”
These were the odds showing Wednesday morning for the 217horses available to Nevada bettors in the Kentucky Derby 2024 futures atCaesars Sportsbook and Circa Sports. They are listed in order of their bestodds.
