Kentucky Oaks 2023: Expert picks for Friday's races at Churchill Downs
Friday is Kentucky Oaks day. A fun drinking game would be to take a sip every time someone says, “Oaks used to be Louisville’s day at the races.”
This is a great 13-race card headlined by the Kentucky Oaks that also includes the return of 2022 Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike in the Alysheba (Race 5) and budding sprint superstar Munnys Gold in the Eight Belles (Race 7).
Let’s make some money!
Race 1 picks: 6-7-5
First of all, we have to toss morning-line favorite No. 12 Forever After All (7-2 odds). She fits OK, but Post 12 is 0-64 going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt at Churchill Downs. No. 6 Destine to Race (4-1) was similarly marooned last out at Keeneland but ran on well, and Irad Ortiz Jr. retaining the mount for Michelle Lovell is a good sign to me. Really, though, I’d be using 1, 5, 6, 7 to start the Pick 5. Key here is beating the 12.
Race 2 picks: 11-7-6
We’ll see if we actually get 4-1 odds on No. 11 Vahva because there is a lot of speed in here, and while sitting off it will cause her some ground loss on the turn, it will keep her in the clear and give dead aim on the leaders. Luis Saez doesn’t ride a ton for this barn, but he’s only been on this filly, and she’s the easy pick at this price. No. 7 Ervadean (30-1) shocked on debut at 45-1, and she can out-run her odds again based on what we saw in her career bow.
Race 3 picks: 1-6-17-18
A rare four picks because there is sufficient concern about the weather to think this might end up on the main track. If it stays on turf, No. 1 Smokin' T (6-1) made a nice move last out to make the lead and fade, but he has competed against many horses who would be favored in this spot. The race becomes more straightforward on dirt, as Button Boy seems better-suited to the one-turn mile.
Race 4 picks: 16-4-3
If No. 16 Mouffy (4-1) gets in then she’s the choice despite the long layoff. No. 4 Not So Close (7-2) is a gate-to-wire threat back to a one-turn mile. Love to see the trainer D. Wayne Lukas attracting John Velazquez to ride No. 3 Lisette (30-1). If he is more forward here back to one turn, she can be in the mix late.
Race 5 (Alysheba Stakes) picks: 4-1-6
Last year’s Kentucky Derby hero Rich Strike makes his 4-year-old debut here, and I fear the waters will be too deep for this colt off the layoff considering the recent success of his primary challengers. That includes No. 4 West Will Power (2-1), who was just awesome in the New Orleans Classic. No guarantee he can replicate that, but if he does no one else wins. No. 6 Milliken (10-1) and No. 7 Giant Game (30-1) can’t be completely dismissed for a slice underneath the logicals.
Race 6 (Modesty Stakes) picks: 2-1-7
Trying to hunt trainer Chad Brown down in a stakes race for female turfers should be referred to as the most dangerous game, but the rewards are often sweet. We’ll take our shot with a couple of horses drawn inside, led by No. 2 Didia (5-1), who extended her win streak to six in her 5-year-old debut and looked awesome doing it. No. 1 Sweet Dani Girl (12-1) isn’t impossible as a gate-to-wire threat.
Race 7 picks (Eight Belles Stakes): 9-7-6
There are three “picks” listed, but in this race there can really only be one. No. 9 Munnys Gold (6-5) is the most likely winner of the weekend. This filly is taking a step up in stakes class being that her last win came against Florida-bred foes at Tampa Bay Downs, but she has the look of something special. And trainer Todd Pletcher is going to showcase it on Kentucky Oaks day.
Race 8 picks (Unbridled Sidney): 1-11-9
No. 1 Bay Storm (6-1) has not gone this short in awhile, but the last time was a winning time. The rail is good sprinting on the turf at Churchill, and we know we’ll get this price because No. 11 Caravel (4-5) is absolutely the horse to beat after returning a winner at Keeneland off that Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint score to close out 2022.
Race 9 (La Troienne Stakes) picks: 4-2-7
Man. I wish I had something clever in here because last year’s Kentucky Oaks winner and No. 4 Secret Oath (3-1) is going to be over-bet, but she just looks like the best among these. And if any trainer can keep them clicking along on short rest it’s Lukas. No. 2 Search Results (4-1) is fastest at her best, but the races off a layoff are concerning at a short price. Similarly, No. 7 Society (4-1) can win this at her best, but she’ll have to improve off that last. How cool is it that the Derby and Oaks winners are racing on the same day?
Race 10 (Edgewood Stakes) picks: 5-3-10
No. 5 Preliminary (5-1) looks faster than No. 3 Cairo Consort (3-1). These are the top two in here, and since I’d like to play the lottery a little bit in Race 9 on some tickets, a lean here on a 5-1 morning-line horse could be quite succulent. Based on the debut I wouldn’t mind seeing a little more pace, but if none develops then No. 10 Flashy Gem (10-1) isn’t impossible.
Race 11 (Kentucky Oaks) picks: 10-11-4
I admit it, a little bit of this pick is thinking that the main track might be sloppy, but most of it is because I think the New Mexico-based filly, No. 10 Flying Connection (15-1), is a legitimate gate-to-wire threat at a very generous price. Jockey Florent Geroux has already won the Oaks from an outside post (Monomoy Girl in 2018), and Flying Connection has not looked back in either of her two-turn races. By Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist, she should have no issue with the added half furlong, and the aforementioned sire’s win percentage is 19% with his progeny in the mud. That’s a nice number.
Race 12 picks: 1-6-9
While not quite as dominant as Munnings Gold, No. 1 Curl Girl (7-2) has the look of one of the most likely winners on the card. She stretched out last out to win going away despite an outside post at Keeneland and does not appear to catch any future stakes stars in her first try against winners.
Race 13 picks: 14-6-10
The far outside post shouldn’t be too awful for No. 14 American Retro (4-1), who will have a long run to the turn under Saez to take command. She pressed a fast pace on debut, and trainer Ian Wilkes is not a debut trainer. Should see marked improvement here, but she doesn’t even need to improve to contend for the win, which makes her a major player. No. 6 Islandinthestream (15-1) debuted on turf, but the breeding looks good for dirt to me and she will be a monster price.
