Post Time: Evenly matched Kentucky Oaks field runs for the lilies

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – A talented group of 14 fillies will seek glory in Friday’s $1.25 million Grade 1 Longines Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs.

Trainer Brad Cox will saddle morning-line favorite Wet Paint (5-2), who comes in off three consecutive wins on the Oaklawn Park prep circuit.

The daughter of Blame will be looking to provide Cox with his third Oaks training win after previous victories with Monomoy Girl (2018) and Shedaresthedevil (2020).

Wonder Wheel (12-1), the 2-year-old filly champion, squeaked into the race after a defection last week, qualifying based on two wins she garnered last year. The daughter of Into Mischief will be trying to regain the form of her impressive 2-year-old season in which she won 4 of 5 races.

The 149th Run for the Lilies is the feature race on Friday’s card under the Twin Spires. The race will be broadcast live on USA Network and Peacock during a five-hour telecast beginning at 1 p.m.  Post time for the Oaks is 5:51 p.m. EDT as Race 11 over 1 1/8 miles. 

The weather forecast calls for sunny conditions at post time and the rain projected earlier in the week for Friday is no longer in the forecast.

Let’s take a look at the field (post position, trainer, jockey, morning line odds in parenthesis):

1 – Mimi Kakushi (bin Ghadayer, Barzalona, 20-1). Dubai qualifier has won three in a row, but faces a tall order shipping in from across the pond. The Godolphin filly is sired by former Pegasus winner City of Light and will break from the rail to get into good position for a stalking trip. Won at 1 3/16 miles in the UAE Oaks so the nine-furlong distance shouldn’t be an issue. Interesting.

2 – The Alys Look (Cox, Castellano, 15-1). Connect filly comes out of the Fair Grounds (FG) preps for Cox looking to rebound off her last effort in the FG Oaks. Was up against it when she faced tougher company in that race, and she’ll face classier competition at Churchill.

3 – Gambling Girl (Pletcher, Ortiz Jr., 15-1). Anytime you get this trainer/jockey combo at double-digit odds you should pay attention. Todd Pletcher will be seeking a record-tying fifth Oaks victory. The Dialed In filly was closing late in the Gazelle and just needed some added real estate to catch the winner. Looking to be the first half of an Oaks-Derby double for owner Repole Stables, which has the favorite Forte in Saturday's Derby.

4 – Southlawn (N. Casse, R Gutierrez, 8-1). Two impressive wins at the Fair Grounds for the Pioneerof the Nile filly out of an Uncle Mo dam has me salivating at the morning line price. Rochester native Reylu Gutierrez was the leading rider at the FG meeting this winter and has the ride aboard this fast, improving filly. Should be able to run all day. The pick.

5 – Wonder Wheel (M. Casse, Rosario, 12-1). The champ has been out of form in 2023, finishing sixth in the Grade 1 Ashland last month at Keeneland. Does the sharp workout April 27 hint that she might be ready to return to her former self in the big one? Even her 2023 debut in a non-graded stake at Tampa was less than to be desired. I’ll let her beat me.

6 – Botanical (Cox, Landeros, 4-1). One of three Cox starters who comes off the synthetic Tapeta surface to run on the dirt for the first time in the Oaks. Came through the Turfway Park preps up the road in Florence and the award-winning trainer is hoping her form transfers to the Churchill surface. By Medaglia d’Oro out of a Blame dam, she is another that should cruise at the distance. Contender.

7– Wet Paint (Cox, Prat, 5-2). Morning-line favorite swept the Oaklawn preps for Cox and has a pedigree that screams stamina. A hot pace would benefit her as well, as she has come from off the pace to win each of the preps. Daughter of Blame is the one to beat.

8 – Promiseher America (Handal, Vargas, 30-1). Longest shot on the board for NYRA-based trainer Raymond Handal, who will condition his first filly to run in the Oaks. Daughter of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah upset the Gazelle field, including the Pletcher filly, at odds of 26-1 to earn a date in Louisville. How she handles a 14-horse field, the big crowd and the move up in class are the questions surrounding her chances.

9 – And Tell Me Nolies (Miller, Vazquez, 15-1). Daughter of recently elected Racing Hall of Famer Arrogate, ships in from California after two second-place finishes in the Santa Anita preps punched her ticket to the Oaks. She comes in third off the layoff, but will need to make a big move forward to crash the exotics against this group.

10 – Flying Connection (Fincher, Geroux, 15-1). The daughter of a Derby winner (Nyquist) will try and upset the field coming out of Sunland Park for trainer Todd Fincher. She won both preps impressively but the waters get immensely deeper in Kentucky. Pass.

11 – Defining Purpose (McPeek, B Hernandez, Jr., 12-1). Gray daughter of Cross Traffic qualified with the Ashland win at Keeneland. Trainer Ken McPeek seeking his first Oaks win. Has looked good in the morning, firing a bullet work April 29 over the surface. Using underneath in the exotics.

12– Dorth Vader (Yates, Saez, 20-1). Ships in from Florida circuit where she has struggled at the longer distances. Daughter of Girvin will need the force behind her to pull a big upset.

13 – Affirmative Lady (Motion, Velazquez, 10-1). Super connections who won the 2011 Derby will pair up on the daughter of Arrogate. Won the Gulfstream Oaks at 8-1 to qualify. Bred for the distance and usable underneath.

14 – Pretty Mischievous (Walsh, Gaffalione, 10-1). Ran in the New Orleans circuit and finished second to my top pick after a bobble at the start. Daughter of Into Mischief adds blinkers. Will have to work out a trip from the outside post and will have to use up some early energy to get into position based on her early running style. Might be asking a bit too much.

Two fillies are listed as also-eligible in 15-Taxed (20-1) and 16-Julia’s Shining (15-1) that will need a scratch to get into the race.

Post Time Outlook: 1 –Southlawn; 2 –Wet Paint; 3 –Gambling Girl; 4 –Defining Purpose

Gene Kershner, a Buffalo-based turf writer, is a member of the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters Association, and tweets@EquiSpace.