Kentucky vs Florida Odds, Picks & Predictions

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11 January 2023

Kentucky vs Florida Odds, Picks & Predictions

Anthony Richardson broke out in Week 1, and faces another great matchup against Kentucky. Find out why Florida's stud QB could be in for a second strong outing Saturday with our college football betting picks.

Florida vs. Kentucky was an SEC rivalry that the Gators dominated for literal decades. But that has changed. The Wildcats have won two of the previous four meetings, including a 20-13 victory in Lexington.

This year’s matchup takes place in The Swamp, features two of the nation’s most talked about quarterbacks in Will Levis and Anthony Richardson, and is a showdown of Top 20-ranked teams.

Florida enters this game riding high after claiming the most impressive victory in Week 1 by taking down Utah in the final minutes. While Kentucky got a comfortable win against Miami of Ohio, there are some questions to be answered about this offense.

For a game this hyped, I’m not sure if one best bet is enough. Find out the best college football picks and predictions for this epic SEC showdown in Week 2 between Kentucky and Florida.

Kentucky vs Florida best odds

Kentucky vs Florida picks and predictions

While it wasn’t a big upset (the Gators were 2.5-point underdogs), and at home, last week’s win over a Top 10-ranked Utah was a huge way to open the Billy Napier era at Florida. And no one looked more impressive in that game than quarterback Anthony Richardson.

The Gators’ QB went 17-24 for a meager 168 yards and no scores, but he didn’t throw an interception either. Oh, and then there are the 106 yards and three scores he rumbled for on the ground, leading his team to a big win and jumping up the Heisman Trophy odds board in the process.

Kentucky also opened the season with a win, taking down Miami (OH) 37-13. But if you watched that game, you saw that the Wildcats were not as impressive on offense as that score indicates. In fact, there could be some real concerns on that side of the ball this week, even with Will Levis under center.

For starters, even though Kentucky scored 37 points, the Wildcats scored on a kickoff return and scored 13 points on short fields thanks to poor Miami decisions.

On top of that, the offensive line did not look good. Levis was forced to move out of the pocket more than he would like and ended up getting sacked four times. They also couldn’t open holes for the running game, as the team rushed 25 times for just 50 yards. And that was against a rebuilding defense from the MAC.

So, what are they going to do against a much more talented Gators defensive front that played very well against a good Utah team?

It also sounds like star running back Chris Rodriguez will be unavailable for this game after missing the opener due to disciplinary reasons. So, it’s hard to see Kentucky eclipsing its team total and despite going 2-2 in the last four meetings have only scored more than 21 points once and have averaged 19.5 points over that span.

My best bet: Kentucky Team Total Under 23.5 (-114 at FanDuel)

But that’s not the only thing we’re betting on in this big SEC battle. More and more sportsbooks are posting college football player props with more regularity these days — at least for bigger games. And I found one that popped off the board to me: Richardson’s rushing yardage prop at 59.5. I am jumping all over the Over on that number.

Yes, I know Kentucky has a good defense. But so does Utah. In fact, both Kentucky and Utah gave up exactly 3.8 yards per carry last season. And that didn’t stop Richardson from totaling 106 yards on 11 carries last week.

Richardson’s rushing numbers last season were all over the place, but he ended up averaging 7.9 yards per carry. Against Kentucky, he managed just 25 yards on five carries but he took just six snaps in the game. And last week, the Wildcats let Miami QB Brett Gabbert (yes, Blaine’s little brother) rush for 28 yards. I’m confident AR can more than double that with a full game of snaps.

I’ve already started to see some bigger numbers pop up for this prop, so get it quickly. Richardson is the type of guy who can go Over this number in one play.

My best bet: Anthony Richardson Over 59.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)

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Kentucky vs Florida betting preview

Spread analysis

The spread for this SEC showdown has been interesting to watch. It hit the board with Florida as a 5.5-point home favorite and that number did not last long, moving quickly to 4.5. But as the week rolled on the money has come back on the Gators, moving the number back to 5.5 and even hitting 6 at some sportsbooks.

The other thing to note about this line is that there actually could be a little bit of value on Kentucky due to some recency bias. Everyone saw what Richardson did at the end of last week for the Gators. But if he doesn’t go Super Saiyan in the second half, or if the Gators don’t pick off Cam Rising on that final drive and Florida losses, this game is probably lined at Florida -2.5 or Florida -3.

That said, I’m leaning towards Florida up to -5.5. The concerns with the Kentucky offense are real. They can’t run the ball and this Florida defense just limited Rising to 216 yards passing.

Over/Under analysis

The total on the other hand hit the board at 51.5, quickly jumped up to 52.5 but dropped back down to the opening number as the weekend approaches.

I would lean towards the Under here because of all the things outlined earlier in regard to my concerns about the Kentucky offense going against a solid Florida defense. And while Richardson can break a big play at any time, don’t be shocked if the Gators try to ground and pound the Wildcats for a good portion of this game — wearing them out on that side of the ball.

On top of that, these SEC rivals have played close, intense, and competitive over the last five years and would have eclipsed this number of 51.5 just once over those five games, averaging a combined 45 points.