Knicks vs Heat NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions

Covers

08 May 2023

Knicks vs Heat NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions

Julius Randle's scoring has come and gone during these playoffs but he's still able to make an impact in other facets of the game. That's what our NBA betting picks expect when the Knicks try to even up their second-round series tonight.

Even SPF 1,000 wouldn’t have protected the New York Knicks from getting sizzled in South Beach last time out.

New York now runs the risk of going down 3-1 to the Miami Heat in their Eastern Conference semifinal series, with host Miami set as a 4.5-point home favorite in Game 4 on Monday night.

The Heat torched the Knicks 105-86 in Game 3, covering as 4-point chalk inside the Kaseya Center, and have come away with the cash against the spread in all three games so far. In fact, Miami has been the best bet of the NBA Playoffs, with a 8-2 ATS mark in 10 postseason games.

I look at the point spread and Over/Under total for Game 4 and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Knicks at Heat on May 8.

Knicks vs Heat Game 4 best odds

Knicks vs Heat Game 4 picks and predictions

New York Knicks All-Star forward Julius Randle needs to be a Swiss Army Knife if New York is going avoid a return to the Big Apple down 3-1 to Miami.

After missing Game 1 due to an ankle injury, Randle has been hit-and-miss offensively in the past two outings. He followed a 25-point, 12 rebounds, 8-assist stat line in Game 2’s victory with a meager 10 points on 4-for-15 shooting in Game 3, including 0-for-5 from beyond the arc.

Randle still corralled 14 boards and dished out two assists in Saturday’s loss and his rebound + assist prop for Game 4 is a modest 12.5 Over/Under — a number he’s pretty much eclipsed on rebounds alone the past two games.

The bulk of player projections calls for Randle to round up at least nine boards Monday night, with my estimates leaning closer to 10 rebounds. His assist projections all sit north of four dimes — mine at 4.2 — with a higher ceiling considering the good looks generated by would-be assists in Game 3 but the Knicks just couldn’t buy a bucket at times.

Miami is plugging up the paint and sending extra bodies at Randle whenever he steps inside the 3-point arc, leaving plenty of space for the Knicks’ forward to find the open man. New York just has to make those shots. The Knicks are promoting pace heading into Game 4, trying to beat the Heat’s hardnosed halfcourt defense down the floor, which means a quicker tempo and more possessions.

Randle has totaled more than 12 rebounds + assists in four of his six meetings with Miami this season, with one of those games a 15-minute blip (5 rebounds, 1 assist) in which Randle originally injured his ankle back in late March. He's averaged 15.8 combined in the other five matchups with the Heat.

My best bet: Julius Randle Over 12.5 rebounds + assists (-105)

Knicks vs Heat same-game parlay

Julius Randle Over 3.5 assists (-162)

Julius Randle Over 8.5 rebounds (-125)

Bam Adebayo Over 16.5 points (-125)

If Randle can’t get his touch back against a smothering Heat defense, he has to continue to impact the game on the glass and with his passing when Miami brings extra pressure. Hopefully, his teammates can knock down those open looks. On the other end, Adebayo’s point total is trimming but his Game 4 projections call for a closer to 19 points from Miami’s flexible forward.

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Knicks vs Heat Game 4 spread and Over/Under analysis

After the smoke cleared from Game 3’s devastation, oddsmakers opened Miami as big as a 5-point home favorite for Game 4, coming off a one-sided 19-point victory Saturday. That spread didn’t last long, as the line slimmed to -4.5 and even -4 at some books.

As of Monday morning, the market consensus is Heat -4.5 with the Knicks expecting super-sub Immanuel Quickley to sit out Game 4 with a sprained ankle. Miami has some notables on the injury report as well, like Jimmy Butler and Caleb Martin, but they’re expected to play in Game 4.

Miami has found multiple ways to win so far in this series, most recently turning up the intensity on the defensive end. The Heat choked out the Knicks' attack to just 34% success from the floor, including a paltry 8-for-40 from beyond the arc Saturday.

That’s a significant win for Miami, considering New York ranked out among the top offensive clubs in the regular season. It also softened the blow of a bad offensive outing from the Heat, who made only 39% of their shot and hit 7 of 32 from beyond the arc.

Whether you want to call it a defensive battle or an offense dud, the low-scoring Game 3 result has had an impact on tonight’s Over/Under total.

The Game 4 number hit the board as low as 205 points and has since bubbled up a bit to 206, which still sits shorter than the closing total for Game 3 as well as O/U’s of 210 and 208 points in the opening games at Madison Square Garden.

The series is being played at one of the slower paces in Round 2 of the NBA Playoffs, with the Knicks and Heat boasting a rating of 93.83. Game 3 saw a slight uptick in tempo to 96.5, but poor shooting from both sides pretty much packaged that result as an Under by the second quarter.

According to Covers Consensus, 67% of picks are laying the points with the Heat while 57% of total players are going Over the shorter Over/Under number in Game 4.