Knicks vs. Heat Eastern Conference Semifinals Game 1 Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets

New York is a 4-point favorite against Miami when Julius Randle’s Knicks (47-35) and the Bam Adebayo-led Heat (44-38) take the court on April 30, 2023. The point total for the game is 210.

Knicks vs. Heat Odds

• Knicks odds to win: -177
• Heat odds to win: +150
• Spread: Knicks (-4)
• Total: 210

Knicks vs. Heat Promo Codes

Game Time and Information

• When: Sunday, April 30, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET
• Where: Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York
• TV: ABC

Who Will Win Knicks vs. Heat?

Knicks and Heat Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

The Knicks have a 13-11 record against the spread this season when favored by 4 points or more.

The Heat have a 7-8 record against the spread this year when an underdog by 4 points or more.

Between them, these two teams average 15.5 more points per game (225.5) than this game’s total (210).

Opponents of these teams have averaged a combined 222.9 points per game, 12.9 more than the over/under in this game.

The average over/under the Knicks have had in their matchups this year is 19.1 more points than this particular game’s point total.

The average total for Miami’s games this season is 9.3 more points than the point total of 210 for this outing.

New York is 45-35-2 ATS this season.

So far this season, the Heat have compiled a 30-48-4 record against the spread.

Knicks Stats & Insights

The Knicks are outscoring opponents by 2.9 points per game with a +240 scoring differential overall. They put up 116.0 points per game (11th in the NBA) and allow 113.1 per outing (12th in the league).

The 46.6 rebounds per game the Knicks average rank second in the league, and are 4.6 more than the 42.0 their opponents collect per contest.

New York makes 12.6 three-pointers per game (11th in the league), while its opponents have made 13.0 on average.

The Knicks rank sixth in the league by averaging 114.9 points per 100 possessions on offense, and defensively are 16th in the NBA, allowing 111.7 points per 100 possessions.

So far in 2022-23, the Knicks’ offense has been better at home, where they score 117.3 points per game, compared to on the road, where they average 114.8 per game. On the defensive side of the ball, they have been slightly tougher at home, where they surrender 113.0 points per game, versus road games, where they let their opponents to average 113.2 per game.

Heat Stats & Insights

The Heat have a -26 scoring differential, putting up 109.5 points per game (30th in league) and allowing 109.8 (second in NBA).

Miami loses the rebound battle by 1.3 boards on average. It records 40.6 rebounds per game, 27th in the league, while its opponents pull down 41.9.

The Heat hit 1.1 fewer threes per contest than the opposition, 12.0 (16th in the league) compared to their opponents’ 13.1.

The Heat rank 25th in the league averaging 110.4 points per 100 possessions on offense, and defensively are ninth, allowing 110.6 points per 100 possessions.

In 2022-23 Miami is averaging 3.9 more points per game at home (111.4) than on the road (107.5).

Knicks Key Players to Watch

Randle averages 25.1 points, 10.0 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game.

Jalen Brunson contributes with 3.5 boards and 6.2 assists per game in addition to his 24.0 PPG scoring average.

The Knicks get 2.8 three-pointers per game out of Randle.

Josh Hart averages 1.2 steals per game, while Mitchell Robinson has 1.8 blocks per contest.

Heat Key Players to Watch

Adebayo has the top Heat spot in two categories among active players: scoring (20.4 points per game) and rebounding (9.2 rebounds per game). He also has 3.2 assists per contest.

Jimmy Butler has per-game averages of 22.9 points, 5.3 assists and 5.9 rebounds this season.

Max Strus averages 2.5 made threes per game.

Butler’s 1.8 steals and Adebayo’s 0.8 blocks per game are important to the Heat’s defensive effort.

• Pick ATS: Knicks (- 4)
• Pick OU:

  Over (210)
  

• Prediction:
  Knicks 115 – Heat 109