Knicks vs. Heat odds, prediction, picks: Back New York as an underdog in Game 4
Some 48 hours after the regular season concluded, the Miami Heat hosted the Atlanta Hawks in a win-and-move-on play-in game.
Despite being favored, the Heat got blitzed, 116-105, with All-Star guard Jimmy Butler missing 13 of his 19 field-goal attempts.
Since then? Miami is 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS overall, including 4-0 SU and ATS at home.
If the Heat can keep rolling Monday night by upending the New York Knicks, they’ll move within one victory of reaching the Eastern Conference finals for a second straight season.
But if the Knicks can continue their own streak — they haven’t lost consecutive games in these playoffs — they’ll even the best-of-7 series heading back to New York.
Which side will prevail? Here’s how we’re betting Game 4 of Knicks vs. Heat.
Odds updated as of 11:30 a.m. ET on May 8.
Knicks vs. Heat Prediction
Knicks +4.5, -108 (at FanDuel)
Knicks vs. Heat Prediction: Analysis
It’s extremely difficult to wager against Miami right now, because doing so requires wagering against Butler.
Since his poor effort against Atlanta in that initial play-in contest back on April 11, the Heat’s shooting guard has scored at least 25 points in all eight games he’s played.
Miami’s only blemish in those eight contests: a 138-122 loss at No. 1 seed Milwaukee in Game 2 of an opening-round series the Heat went on to win in five games.
That also happens to be Miami’s only non-cover since the Hawks loss. It even cashed in a 111-105 Game 2 loss at New York as a 10-point underdog.
Why were the Heat catching double digits in that one? Because Butler sat out with a sprained ankle.
Butler returned for Saturday’s Game 3 and tallied a game-high 28 points in a 105-86 blowout as a 4-point home chalk.
So why not keep riding Butler and Miami in Game 4 — especially since New York shot just 34% in Game 3, missed 32 of 40 attempts from 3-point land and lost NBA Sixth Man of the Year runner-up Immanuel Quickley to an ankle injury?
The simplest answer: We’re playing the percentages.
The Heat, who tied for the NBA’s worst overall point-spread record in the regular season and had the second-worst point-spread record at home, have cashed in six consecutive games.
That’s already three times longer than Miami’s lengthiest ATS winning streak in the regular season.
Yep, over an 82-game season from late October to early April, Butler and Co. never once cashed three straight times.
The last time the Heat had a seven-game ATS winning streak? You have to go back to the summer of 2020, when they went on a 7-0 SU and ATS run to kick off the COVID bubble in Orlando.
While Miami burned bettors throughout this regular season, the Knicks posted the league’s seventh-best ATS record at 44-34-4. And only the Sacramento Kings (27-14 ATS) were more profitable on the road than New York (26-14-1).
The last time the Knicks, who obviously are 0-for-3 ATS in this series, failed to cover in four straight games: Jan. 16-22.
That’s one of just two four-game ATS slides New York has posted all season.
So even though Quickley — the team’s fourth-leading scorer in the regular season — is doubtful with his ankle injury, we’re betting on a strong bounce-back effort from New York.
At the same time, we’re betting on Miami to regress to the team that was highly overvalued in the wagering market all season.
Keep this in mind, too: During their 8-1 ATS run, the Heat were favored just twice: against Chicago in the elimination play-in game and in Saturday’s Game 3.
Miami cashed in both games but hasn’t delivered as a chalk in three straight since last year’s postseason.
Point spread: Knicks (+4.5, -108) @ Heat (-4.5, -112)
Moneyline: Knicks (+154) @ Heat (-184)
Total: 207.5 points (Over -112/Under -110)
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