Knicks vs. Heat prediction, odds, start time: 2023 NBA playoff picks, Game 4 best bets by model on 71-38 run

The New York Knicks and Miami Heat square off in a pivotal Game 4 matchup on Monday evening in the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Heat lead the best-of-seven series in the 2023 NBA playoffs by a 2-1 margin after a 105-86 victory in Game 3 on Saturday afternoon. Kaseya Center hosts Game 4, with the Heat aiming to put a stranglehold on the series at home. Immanuel Quickley (ankle) is listed as doubtful for the Knicks. Jimmy Butler (ankle) and Caleb Martin (back) are listed as questionable for the Heat, with Tyler Herro (hand) remaining out.

Tipoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET in Miami. Caesars Sportsbook lists Miami as the 4.5-point home favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 207 in the latest Knicks vs. Heat odds. Before making any Heat vs. Knicks picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the conference semifinals of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 71-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,800. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Knicks and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Knicks vs. Heat:

• Knicks vs. Heat spread: Heat -4.5
• Knicks vs. Heat over/under: 207 points
• Knicks vs. Heat money line: Heat -190, Knicks +158
• NYK: The Knicks are 28-16-1 against the spread in road games
• MIA The Heat are 18-26-2 against the spread in home games

Featured Game| Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks

Why the Knicks can cover

The Knicks have urgency in Game 4, but New York was excellent on the road this season, providing optimism. The Knicks had the fifth-best net rating (+1.5) and win-loss record (24-17) away from home in the NBA during the regular season and also won twice in Cleveland during the first round. New York also has proven physicality on the offensive end. The Knicks finished in the top five of the NBA in offensive rebound rate (31.8%), second-chance points (16.2 per game), and free throw attempts (25.5 per game) during the regular season, and New York's offensive rebounding prowess has even improved in the playoffs. 

The Knicks are grabbing 36.7% of available offensive rebounds and averaging 16.5 second-chance points per game in the postseason, and New York also has a track record of strong ball security with a 13.1% turnover rate in the regular season. New York's defense is also playing well, allowing only 1.06 points per possession in the playoffs, and Tom Thibodeau projects to have his team prepared for action in a hostile environment. See which side to back at SportsLine.

Why the Heat can cover

Miami's defense has taken a leap so far in the series. The Heat are allowing only 1.05 points per possession to the Knicks, with New York averaging only 21.5 assists per game and shooting only 31.1% from 3-point range. Miami finished as a top-10 defensive team in the NBA during the regular season, yielding 112.8 points per 100 possessions, and the Heat posted top-five metrics in free throw prevention, defensive rebound rate, second-chance points allowed, turnovers created, points allowed in the paint and fast break points allowed per game over 82 contests. 

On offense, Miami was less prolific during the regular season, but the Heat have found their footing in the postseason. Miami is scoring 1.17 points per possession in playoff games, shooting 39.2% from 3-point range and 48.2% on all field goal attempts. The Heat are averaging nearly 26 free throw attempts per game against the Knicks and committing only 10 turnovers per contest against New York. See which side to back at SportsLine.

How to make Heat vs. Knicks picks

The model has simulated Knicks vs. Heat 10,000 times and is leaning Over on the total, projecting 209 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time. You can only get the picks at SportsLine.