Knicks vs. Pelicans prediction: NBA odds, picks, bets for Tuesday

The New York Knicks will try to earn a series split with New Orleans when they host the Pelicans on Tuesday night.

The challenge for New York is it’ll play the second leg of a back-to-back, while New Orleans will have a one-day rest advantage.

That could explain why the Pelicans are now 4.5-point favorites after opening as one-point underdogs.

With my handicap squarely based on New York being on short rest, I’ll share why the total offers the best value in this NBA matchup.

The Pelicans don’t play particularly fast, ranking 19th with 102 possessions per game, according to TeamRankings.

However, when they’re at home, they play a bit faster, ranking in the top half of the league, averaging 102.7 possessions.

On the road, they drop to 23rd, with 101.4 possessions, which suggests they struggle to dictate the pace as much as they like.

One of the biggest discrepancies I see in their overall stats is they average fewer 3-point shots on the road (30.8) than at home (34).

And while the total is 31-27 (53.4%) to the Under in Pelicans games this season, it’s on the road where Under bettors are having greater success, as evidenced by a 16-13 (55.2%) mark.

The Knicks rank 11th in limiting opponents to an average of 34.5 3-point attempts, and they’re slightly better at home, allowing 33.6 attempts.

In the first meeting, the Knicks held the Pelicans to 33 3-point attempts and 27.6% from beyond the arc.

The Knicks have been even better over their last three games, with opponents attempting 31.3 3-pointers. If they can continue that trend, we could be in line for another low-scoring affair.

The pace of play is very significant anytime you’re considering a total, and the Knicks (99.6) are last in this category, as they’re the only team averaging less than 100 possessions. 

New York’s meticulous approach is just one reason it’s allowing the third-fewest points per game (109.8). 

And while playing in front of your home crowd should offer an added level of comfort for teams to be more aggressive, the Knicks slow the game down even more with an average of 98.4 possessions at Madison Square Garden.

Thus, it’s no surprise the Knicks’ pace of play makes them the third-most profitable team for Under bettors (35-23, 60.3%).

It’s worth noting that the Under improves to 69% with a 20-9 mark. 

When betting on an Under, you always want the clock running as much as possible. New York does a tremendous job of playing defense without sending its opponent to the free-throw line. 

The Knicks rank fifth in opponent free throw attempts (20.1) and third in opponent free throws made (15.3).

When you put it all together, the Knicks clearly fit the profile of a team where the Under has a ton of value in their games.

I mentioned the Knicks are hosting the Pelicans on short rest at home for this game, and that angle offers additional value in this matchup. 

According to our Action Labs database, the total is a perfect 3-0 to the Under in this spot with the Knicks. 

Although my model projects a marginally higher total at 220.5 points, I can only look to the under in this spot.

This total opened at 220, and since I missed the best of the number, I’ll buy some insurance at BetRivers with an alternate total of 220 at -129 odds.