Thunder vs. Lakers prediction: NBA odds, picks, best bets for Monday

The dust has settled on LeBron James eclipsing the 40,000-point scoring mark on Saturday against the Nuggets.

James added yet another milestone to his impressive list of accomplishments, albeit in a losing cause.

Denver scored 16 of the final 20 points in the game to hand the Lakers a 124-114 defeat.

Now that the pomp and circumstance is finally over, the Lakers can refocus their efforts on climbing up the Western Conference standings.

Over their last three home games, they allowed a league-worst 124.3 points per game while ranking 26th in defensive efficiency with 120.7 points allowed per 100 possessions.

This season, their 111.5 defensive rating ranks eighth in the league. 

Next up for Los Angeles on Monday night is a visit from the Thunder, who will play the second leg of a back-to-back

The total for the game opened at 240.5 before being bet down to 238. While I agree with the move, it’s worth noting the over is 7-2-1 this season when Oklahoma City is on short rest.

And given the Thunder’s defensive prowess, a Lakers team total derivative might offer the best value in this matchup.

Despite allowing four more points in defensive efficiency (110.9 per 100 possessions) on the road, OKC still ranks eighth in this category, per TeamRankings. 

Its defensive strategy is to defend the interior, as it ranks fourth in points allowed inside the paint (46.5). On the road, the Thunder maintain the same defensive philosophy, allowing only a half-point more in the paint.

The good thing about facing a team like the Lakers is they’re unlikely to beat you from the perimeter. Los Angeles ranks 29th in 3-point field goals (11.2), and they’re last in 3-point attempts (30.4).

Generally, you’d expect a team to display more confidence shooting the ball better on their home floor. However, at home, they have the fewest 3-point attempts (29.8) while ranking 29th in 3-point field goals (11.1).

The biggest challenge for the Thunder will be keeping the Lakers off the free throw line. Los Angeles ranks sixth in free throw attempts with 24 per game.

And while the Lakers are likely to win the rebounding battle (51.2 vs. 48.7), their 13.7 turnovers result in the league’s second-worst margin on extra scoring chances (-3.2).

Despite ranking 11th in scoring, averaging 117.2 points per game, the Lakers are only 17th in offensive efficiency with 111.9 points per 100 possessions. 

They rank second in two-point field goals (65 per game), which could prove problematic anytime they have a high team total. 

To compensate for their lack of perimeter shooting, the Lakers try to get easy baskets by beating their opponents down the court. 

Los Angeles ranks third in fastbreak points, averaging 17.4 per game.

However, Oklahoma City is adept at neutralizing that strategy as it’s also third in opponent fastbreak points (12.2).

(10:30 p.m. ET, NBATV)

Oklahoma City has the 10th-youngest team in the league, with an average age of 24.4 years. Their youth should lessen the effect of playing on back-to-back nights.

And when you factor in the quality of talent on the Thunder’s roster, it’s no surprise it has the second-best mark against the spread on short rest at 7-3.

If there’s a team that can overcome this difficult scheduling spot, Oklahoma City is clearly one you don’t want to fade.

Thus, I think Oklahoma City is the likeliest of the two teams to put forth a solid defensive effort. 

According to our Action Labs database, the under is 5-1 when the Lakers are at home with an opening total of 240 or more points. 

Moreover, the under is 3-0 when the Lakers face an opponent at home with a defensive rating of 111 or better in games that involve an opening total of at least 240 points.

Since that last trend feels particularly promising for the Thunder, I prefer to isolate the Lakers’ team total and target them to stay under 119.5 points.

Pick: Lakers team total under 119.5 points (-125, BetMGM)

Michael Arinze is a sports handicapper for Action Network. Follow him on X