New York Knicks vs. New Orleans Pelicans Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Knicks vs. Pelicans Odds
Saturday’s seven-game NBA slate will begin with a trio of contests at 7:00 PM ET, including a matchup between the New York Knicks and Zion Williamson-led New Orleans Pelicans. New York lost on opening night to Boston but rebounded with a 126-120 victory on Friday against Atlanta. New Orleans is 2-0 to begin the new campaign after defeating Orlando and Memphis on the road. Ahead of tip-off this evening, the Pelicans are favored by 3 points against the Knicks. The game total is set at over/under 224 points.
Below, we break down the matchup for both teams and offer a free pick for the betting community!
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New York Knicks
Knicks on back-to-back against Pelicans on Saturday
Yesterday, New York played in Atlanta, making tonight’s action against New Orleans their first back-to-back test of the young season. Last season, the Knicks were one of the better teams in the league playing on zero days of rest, going 7-5 SU and 6-4-2 ATS. Exactly half of those 12 games went over their total, with the other half obviously going under.
On Friday, Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson, Jalen Brunson, and RJ Barrett each played at least 33 minutes for the Knicks. Though the team is well-conditioned, they are unquestionably at a disadvantage tonight playing the Pelicans, a team that has not played in three days.
New York struggling to keep opponents off of the foul line
In two games to begin the season, the Knicks rank 24th out of 30 teams in opponent free throw attempts per game. The sample size is admittedly extremely small, but it is worth noting considering that New York was also in the bottom half of the league in opponent free throw attempts per game during the 2022-23 campaign.
Playing on the second night of a back-to-back set, defending without fouling becomes even more of a challenge, with players’ legs not being fully rested and perhaps being a half-second late moving their feet to get in legal guarding position. This will be an area to watch on Saturday.
New Orleans Pelicans
Williamson making a difference for New Orleans
Prior to suffering a season-ending injury last season, the Pelicans were 17-12 in games that Zion Williamson played. Last season, New Orleans ranked in the 81st percentile in offensive efficiency and the 89th percentile in defensive efficiency with Williamson on the court, compared to the 43rd percentile in offensive efficiency and 61st percentile in defensive efficiency with Williamson off of the court, according to Cleaning the Glass.
Williamson had 23 points and 7 rebounds in 32 minutes on opening night against the Grizzlies. New Orleans is undoubtedly happy to have him healthy to start the new campaign.
Pelicans looking to defend home court
Prior to Williamson going down for the season last January, the Pelicans had been one of the toughest home teams in the NBA, winning 16 of 20 games and outscoring their opponents by 8.3 points per 100 possessions. Their Net Rating in that span was 6th-best in the entire league, trailing only the Grizzlies, Celtics, Nuggets, Warriors, and Cavaliers, all of which were playoff teams.
The key to their success was dominance on the glass, ranking 6th in rebound percentage during that stretch of action. Tonight, they face a tough test against a New York team that is also adept on the boards.
New York Knicks vs. New Orleans Pelicans Prediction
Pelicans (-3)
Zion Williamson is healthy and moving well. New Orleans was 17-12 with Williamson in the lineup last season, which would have made them the #3 seed in the Western Conference playoffs if they had sustained that winning percentage over the course of the entire season. At home, New Orleans was an impressive 27-14 overall, but they were one of the league’s most dominant home teams when Williamson played. Being able to get this game close to a pick’em is a mistake, especially considering that New York is playing on the second-half of a back-to-back set tonight.
