Korea vs Japan World Baseball Picks & Odds
Japan blew out China in their World Baseball Classic opener, but let many additional scoring chances go to waste. Read on to find out why we're not expecting lightning to strike twice against Korea on Friday.
Coming off an embarrassing 8-7 loss to Australia on Thursday morning, the winless South Koreans have to rebound Friday vs. host nation Japan if they want a shot at advancing in the World Baseball Classic.
The Japanese left a ton of runs on the table Thursday morning, but with the quick turnaround and a deeper roster, the hosts have a massive advantage vs. their intracontinental baseball rivals.
Find out where my best bets lie in our picks and predictions for this WBC matchup between South Korea vs. Japan on Friday, March 10.
Korea vs Japan odds: Moneyline, run line, Over/Under
Korea vs Japan picks and predictions
Japan burned me in the opener, but they left more runs on the table than I could count.
Playing against China, the Japanese stranded 16 base runners and went 3-for-14 with runners in scoring position. The host nation also had to slow their bats down to the amateur pitching of the Chinese, which can sometimes be problematic for advanced hitters. They also hit into a pair of double plays and were picked off once. Eight runs were almost the least amount of runs they could have scored with all that traffic on the bases. Friday could be a better story for their offense.
Now Japan faces a Korean pitching staff that gave up three home runs to the Australians, and a bullpen that allowed six earned runs over four-plus innings in the opener.
Korea will start former Cardinal pitcher Kwang-hyun Kim. He was originally supposed to come out of the bullpen in the tournament, but with the Koreans in desperation mode, manager Kang-chul Lee has called an audible.
The pitching limits in the pool play favor the Japanese, as no pitcher can throw more than 65 pitches, and it will be hard for the underdogs to hide their bullpen, especially when they need to win out. That means keeping pitch counts under 30-plus pitches to have them available for the next game.
The Koreans gave up 17 total runs in their final two games at the Olympics in 2021, and if you’ve ever seen the Korean Baseball Organization, runs are a common thing for a league with run totals in the double-digits.
Japan squandered plenty of runs in the opener, but should get them back tonight vs. a scared Korean team that saw how weak its bullpen was 24 hours ago. Lars Nootbaar and Shohei Ohtani will lead this offense to a couple of big innings.
If Japan were the visitors, I'd take the Over 5.5 at plus money. But they might only see 24 outs and not have to bat in their half of the ninth inning.
My best bet: Japan team total Over 4.5 (-140 at bet365)
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Korea vs Japan moneyline analysis
Japan opened as -400 favorites on the moneyline and -2.5 on the run line in what will be the second game for both nations, with Japan getting the last at-bats as the home team.
Japan is coming off an 8-1 win over China that concluded 20 hours before this game is set to take off, while South Korea was massively upset by the Aussies in their opener as a -660 favorite.
It took the Japanese bats some time to wake up vs. the amateur pitching of the Chinese. Japan drew 16 walks (plus one HBP), reached base on three errors, and had eight hits. They managed just eight runs in the matchup as a 9.5-point favorite on the run line, but likely should have cashed five or more additional runs.
It’s not easy for professional players to slow their bats down to low-80s pitching, so I’m expecting more offense from Japan Friday morning vs. a more traditional South Korean pitching staff.
For Korea, the loss to Australia will be hard to rebound from. The bullpen blew a 4-2 lead in the seventh inning, which ballooned to a four-run deficit by the eighth. The Korean offense had every chance to win the game in the eighth frame, taking five walks and a HBP, but the bats managed zero hits and failed to plate the tying run vs. some very shaky Australian relief pitching.
There were a few low moments for the Koreans, who entered the game as short as -666 on the moneyline — none more egregious than this:
Kang Baek-ho doubles but was off the bag and tagged out. Was reviewed and called out! Huge play as Australia inches closer to a historic victory #WorldBaseballClassicpic.twitter.com/lkN2YFxkV4
— WBC (@WBCContent) March 9, 2023
The Koreans will have every arm available in the bullpen, as no reliever threw 30-plus pitches yesterday. However, that isn’t moving my handicap much, as that bullpen allowed six runs on six hits (two home runs) in 4.2 innings of work vs. a far weaker lineup than the Japanese.
Japan should have a better performance offensively vs. South Korea after going 3-for-14 with runners in scoring position vs. China and stranding 16 runners. The Chinese pitching might slow their bats down, but even former Cardinal and projected starter Kwang-hyun Kim can only do so much with a 65-pitch limit. Japan will see plenty of this Korean bullpen, and should flirt with at least five runs in their home park in front of 55,000 fans.
Korean manager Kang-chul Lee had previously stated that Kim would be used out of the bullpen, but has since deviated from that plan as the team is already desperate after one game.
With underdogs perfect against the spread to start the tournament, it’s tough just to take the favorites on the run line at -2.5. I do think Korea can scratch together a few runs, but Japan will be near impossible to keep off the scoreboard, especially in the later innings.
Korea vs Japan Over/Under analysis
Japan failed to hit the Over 11.5 in their opener, but likely should have finished with 13 runs after stranding 16 runners vs. China in the 8-1 win. Meanwhile, some weak late-inning pitching saw the South Koreans smash their Over of 8 runs vs. Australia.
This total opened at 7.5, and it wouldn’t surprise me if it got bet up to 8.
With Yu Darvish likely and Kwang-hyun Kim confirmed, both teams will have elite starting pitching out of the gates. But with a 65-pitch limit, we could see the bullpens as early as the fourth or fifth frames.
For South Korea, that’s bad news, as their bullpen blew a 4-2 lead to Australia. Although they still have one of their best arms in Chang-Mo Koo (DC Dinos), his usage is in question. With South Korea having to win out, if either of those guys throws 50 pitches, they'll be done for the pool play, as pitchers need four days of rest at that limit.
Japan has a much easier schedule with Czechia on deck for March 11, and then Australia on the 12th. Darvish will likely go the max if he’s dealing. Let’s not be duped by Korea’s seven runs in the opener, as they finished 7-for-31 vs. a weak pitching opponent and relied on walks to create the majority of their runs. Free passes will not be as easily had vs. this Japanese pitching roster.
I’m off this full-game Over 7.5 and think Korea’s seven runs were a little misleading. When both teams to score three-plus runs is +155, it’s tough to expect two-way scoring here, leaving me to just play the Over on the Japanese team total.
Korea vs Japan game info
Korea vs Japan starting pitchers
Kwang-hyun Kim: Kim spent two seasons with the Cardinals, where he pitched in 35 games to a 2.97 ERA. He spent last season in the KBO (Korea) and went 13-3 over 28 starts with a 2.13 ERA. He pitches to contact and struck out just 17% of the batters he faced in 2022.
Yu Darvish: Darvish might not be a Top 20 pitcher anymore in the MLB, but he's the second-best pitcher in this pool behind only Shohei Ohtani. He'll have a 65-pitch limit, but also didn't see any Spring Training action with the Padres before joining the Japanese national team. He posted a 3.10 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP last season in nearly 200 innings for San Diego.
