Italy vs Japan World Baseball Picks & Odds

The Japanese have made a statement as the clear team to beat in this year's World Baseball Classic. Read more to find out why the Italians could be in for a rough quarterfinal in our Italy vs. Japan betting picks.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

This World Baseball Classic has been nothing but unpredictable. However, the one consistent in this tournament has been the dominance of Japan.

Led by two-way star Shohei Ohtani, the Japanese have cruised through pool play, going 4-0 and outscoring their opponents 38-8 in the process. Japan will look to keep rolling when they take on an upstart Italy team in the quarterfinals.

Does Italy stand a chance against this baseball juggernaut? Plus, is there any betting value in backing the underdog here? I break down the World Baseball Classic odds and bring you my free betting picks for this quarterfinals matchup between Italy and Japan.

Italy vs Japan odds: Moneyline, run line, Over/Under

Italy vs Japan picks and predictions

At the start of the tournament, Japan was put in a group with the Dominican Republic and the United States as the top favorites to win it all. However, as the WBC has moved along, it's been clear that Japan is in a class of its own.

Japan dominated Pool B play by going 4-0 with a plus-30 run differential, and its closest game was a 7-1 thumping of pool runner-up Australia.

And the dominance doesn’t end there.

When it comes to pitching, Japan leads the tournament in team ERA (1.50), WHIP (0.61), and opponent batting average (.143). At the plate, the Japanese are also first in OPS (1.001) and second in batting average (.326).

To make matters worse for Italy, Shohei Ohtani will take the mound for his home country on Thursday. In his first start, he shut out China on one hit while striking out five in four innings of work. Ohtani is also hitting .500 with a 1.684 through four games. He literally does it all.

But it’s not just Ohtani. This team is deep, featuring a a mix of NPB superstars like Roki Sasaki, and Munetaka Murakami, and fellow MLB names consisting of Yu Darvish, Lars Nootbar, and Masataka Yoshida. 

The Italians finished pool play at 2-2, notching wins against Cuba and the Netherlands, which was ultimately good enough to qualify for the quarterfinals.

Italy counters Ohtani with Ryan Castellani — a 26-year-old right-hander who saw the bulk of his Major League experience with the Rockies in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. He pitched to a 5.82 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP that year but more recently sported an ugly 11.97 ERA and a 2.73 WHIP as a reliever at Triple-A Las Vegas. In his latest outing, Castellani lasted just two innings against Chinese Taipei, allowing two runs on three hits.

Italy has been a scrappy team offensively, led by David Fletcher, Nicky Lopez, and Vinnie Pasquantino...but this is Japan we're talking about. J

The Japanese have yet to play a game in this tournament that's ended within a margin of five runs, and this Italy team is at best on par with teams like Korea and Australia.

Japan will punch its ticket to Miami with relative ease.

My best bet: Japan -3.5 (-135 at DraftKings)

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Italy vs Japan moneyline analysis

Unsurprisingly, Japan is massive betting chalk for this contest, ranging from -975 to -1250 on the moneyline. It's completely fair considering Japan has been the clear-cut best team in this tournament and is set to hand the ball to one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.

Ohtani is coming off his best season as a pitcher, pitching to a 1.01 WHIP and finishing as the American League leader in strikeouts per nine innings with the Los Angeles Angels (11.9). 

While Italy has been scrappy, the overall numbers aren’t great as it ranks just ninth in the tournament in batting average and 14th in OPS. 

Anything other than a comfortable win for Japan here would be a complete shock.

Italy vs Japan Over/Under analysis

The total for this game is set at a relatively low 8. It feels even lower when you consider the fact that Japan has scored no fewer than seven runs in any game during the WBC and has scored at least eight in three of those four games.

They shouldn’t have much trouble keeping up that pace in this one.

Italy holds a respectable 3.75 ERA on the mound, but look closer and you'll see the team is allowing a 1.42 WHIP with opponents hitting a modest .277. Against a juggernaut like Japan, the dam is due to break.

Italy could get shut out and this will still have a chance to go Over. 

Italy vs Japan game info

Italy vs Japan starting pitchers

Ryan Castellani: A 26-year-old right-hander who is a member of the Oakland A's organization, Castellani spent 2022 with Triple-A Las Vegas as a reliever but struggled with a 5.82 ERA.

Shohei Ohtani: To put it simply, he's the best baseball player on the planet. The right-hander racks up strikeouts with seemingly an unending supply of pitches. When hitters do make contact, it is rarely solid.