Lakers vs. Grizzlies prediction, odds, line, time: 2023 NBA playoff picks, Game 4 bets from model on 71-38 run
The Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Lakers get together for a high-profile matchup in the 2023 NBA playoffs on Monday evening. Crypto.com Arena hosts the Game 4 tilt in Los Angeles, and it is the second game of a playoff doubleheader. Los Angeles leads the best-of-seven series by a 2-1 margin after a Game 3 win on Saturday. LeBron James (foot), Anthony Davis (foot) and Dennis Schroder (Achilles) are listed as probable for the Lakers, with Steven Adams (knee), Brandon Clarke (Achilles) and Jake LaRavia (calf) ruled out for the Grizzlies.
Tipoff is at 10 p.m. ET in Los Angeles. Caesars Sportsbook lists Los Angeles as the 4.5-point favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 221 in the latest Lakers vs. Grizzlies odds. Before making any Grizzlies vs. Lakers picks, you need to see the NBA playoff predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters the third week of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 71-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,800. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Lakers vs. Grizzlies and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Grizzlies vs. Lakers:
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies spread: Lakers -4.5
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies over/under: 221 points
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies money line: Lakers -190, Grizzlies +158
- LAL: The Lakers are 22-21 against the spread in home games
- MEM: The Grizzlies are 14-27-1 against the spread in road games
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game| Los Angeles Lakers vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Why the Grizzlies can cover
The Grizzlies are led by a tremendous defense, but Memphis also has a star on the offensive end in Ja Morant. He finished with 45 points, 13 assists and nine rebounds in Game 3 after missing the previous game with injury, and Morant is shooting 53% from the field in the series. He also averaged more than 26 points and eight assists per game in the regular season, and Morant leads a group that finished in the top six of the NBA in points in the paint, offensive rebound rate, second-chance points, and fast break points in 2022-23.
On defense, Memphis allowed only 110.7 points per 100 possessions in the regular season, No. 3 in the NBA, and the Grizzlies led the league in holding opponents to 45.3% shooting from the field. The Grizzlies also posted top-six marks in turnover creation, steals, blocks, and points allowed in the paint. Memphis is giving up only 1.04 points per possession in the last two games against Los Angeles, and the Grizzlies are yielding only 21.7 assists and 15.0 turnovers per game in the series. See which side to back at SportsLine.
Why the Lakers can cover
The Lakers are excelling on defense in this series, anchored by Davis. Los Angeles is giving up only 106.0 points per 100 possessions to Memphis through three games, and the Lakers lead the playoffs with 8.7 blocked shots per game. The Lakers are also securing almost 73% of available defensive rebounds and yielding only 19.0 free throw attempts per game. Los Angeles is allowing 42.4% shooting from the field and 33.3% from 3-point range, and the Lakers have been operating at a high level on defense for an extended period.
Los Angeles was a top-five defensive team in the NBA after the All-Star break, giving up only 1.11 points per possession, and the Lakers led the league in free throw prevention (20.8 attempts per game) during the regular season. In addition, the Lakers finished No. 2 in the NBA in 3-point defense (34.4%) in 2022-23, with top-10 marks in defensive rebound rate (72.3%) and field goal percentage allowed (46.9%) for the season. See which side to back at SportsLine.
How to make Grizzlies vs. Lakers picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 222 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations. You can see the model's picks at SportsLine.
