Lakers vs. Grizzlies prediction, odds, start time: 2023 NBA playoff picks, Game 5 bets from model on 71-38 run

The NBA showcases a quadruple-header of 2023 NBA playoff action on Wednesday evening. In the second game of the evening, the Los Angeles Lakers visit the Memphis Grizzlies for Game 5 of a first-round series. Los Angeles leads the matchup by a 3-1 margin after an overtime win in Game 4 on Sunday. The Grizzlies host Game 5 at FedExForum, where Memphis is 36-7 this season, including playoffs. LeBron James (foot) and Anthony Davis (foot) are listed as probable for LA, while Steven Adams (knee) and Brandon Clarke (Achilles) remain out for the Grizzlies.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Memphis as a 4.5-point favorite, and tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 222.5 in the latest Lakers vs. Grizzlies odds. Before you make any Grizzlies vs. Lakers picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the third week of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 71-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,800. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Lakers vs. Grizzlies and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Grizzlies vs. Lakers:

• Lakers vs. Grizzlies spread: Grizzlies -4.5
• Lakers vs. Grizzlies over/under: 222.5 points
• Lakers vs. Grizzlies money line: Grizzlies -190, Lakers +158
• LAL: The Lakers are 20-22-1 against the spread in away games
• MEM: The Grizzlies are 24-18-1 against the spread in home games
• Lakers vs. Grizzlies picks: See picks at SportsLine

Featured Game| Memphis Grizzlies vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Why the Lakers can cover

The Lakers are excelling on the defensive end in route to the series lead. Los Angeles is giving up only 1.047 points per possession to Memphis, the best defensive efficiency mark in the Western Conference Playoffs. The Lakers are holding the Grizzlies to 41.6% shooting from the field and 30.1% from 3-point range, and Memphis is generating fewer than 20 free throw attempts per game. Los Angeles also leads the entire NBA Playoffs with 9.3 blocked shots per game, and the Lakers were even better in Game 4.

The Lakers allowed only 39.6% shooting and 9 of 42 from 3-point range on Monday, with the Grizzlies scoring only 1.01 points per possession in the game. In addition, Los Angeles posted a top-five defensive rating (111.3) in the NBA after the All-Star break, and the Lakers led the league in free throw prevention (20.8 attempts allowed per game) during the 2022-23 regular season. See which side to back at SportsLine.

Why the Grizzlies can cover

The Grizzlies have a tremendous defense and plenty of firepower on the offensive end. Led by Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis finished in the top three in defensive rating this season, and the Grizzlies are holding up well against LA. Jackson is also enjoying a strong offensive series, averaging 19.0 points per game, and Ja Morant is one of the most dynamic offensive forces in the NBA. The All-Star guard averaged 26.2 points and 8.1 assists during the regular season, and Morant is putting up 27.3 points, 7.3 assists, and 6.3 rebounds while shooting 47.4% on 3-pointers in this series.

Elsewhere, Desmond Bane erupted for 36 points in Game 4, and he averaged 21.5 points per game with 40.8% shooting from 3-point distance in 2022-23. The Grizzlies are also taking care of the ball with a 13.0% turnover rate against the Lakers, and no team averaged more points in the paint (58.4 per game) than Memphis during the regular season. See which side to back at SportsLine.

How to make Grizzlies vs. Lakers picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 227 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can see the model's picks at SportsLine.