Lebron’s Lakers among teams with most title liability at sportsbooks

It seems long ago that Damian Lillard asked to be traded from the Portland Trail Blazers and seemed destined to land with the Miami Heat. Even back in June, bettors took notice and placed wagers on the Heat to win the 2023-24 title, bets both on their belief in the Heat — and believe that shorter numbers would be coming soon once Lillard arrived in South Beach.

Instead, Lillard was traded to the Milwaukee Bucks to team with Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Jrue Holiday was sent to Boston (via Portland) in a shake-up of Eastern Conference powers.

“Our title liability really lies with the Heat,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at the Borgata in New Jersey told For The Win. “We opened the Heat at 25-1 in June and almost immediately we saw people come in and bet them because they thought the price would be gone once Lillard got to Miami. Miami got down to 9-1 at one point.”

BetMGM told For The Win that they took some wagers at 30-1 on the Heat as well, and got as low as +750, before returning to 30-1 recently.

The Bucks and Celtics are currently co-favorites to win the 2023-24 title at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Celtics (18 percent of bets) and defending champion Denver Nuggets (+550, 17 percent of bets) garnering the most action.

“There was a lot of money on the Bucks after they made the Lillard trade, and then the Celtics after the Holiday deal,” Johnny Avello, sportsbook director at DraftKings, told For The Win. “The Heat took money in anticipation of picking up a few guys, but the Lakers are No. 1 in terms of liability.”

The Nuggets were also No. 1 in ticket percentage at both DraftKings and BetMGM sportsbooks (and the greatest liability at BetMGM) but that wasn’t consistent across sportsbooks.

“The Nuggets are one of the least-bet teams to win the title, believe it or not,” Gable said. “They’re at 6-1 right now.”

DraftKings’ largest reported NBA title wager was a $25,000 bet on the Bucks at +400, placed on Sept. 27. The wager would win $100,000 if Giannis & Co. can win their second title.

“The most liability we have right now is on the Nuggets,” Christian Cipollini told For The Win. “That tends to happen every year for the champion. We’ll post next year’s odds right after the NBA Finals ends and we’ll take a flood of money on the team that won.”

The Phoenix Suns and Lakers were also high in liability at BetMGM.

“The Lakers always attract bets, no matter where you are geographically,” Gable said. “I thought they had a great offseason, personally. If they can get in the playoffs healthy, they have a really good core and can challenge in the Western Conference.”

Of the longer shots, several sportsbooks told For The Win that the Oklahoma City Thunder (80-1 at DraftKings) were receiving a good amount of action.

“Of all the teams that are long shots, the Thunder are taking the most money,” Cipollini told For The Win. “A lot of good angles on that team.”

The NBA regular season tips off on Tuesday night, Oct. 23, with the Lakers facing the Nuggets and the Suns traveling to the Warriors.