Liberty Bowl Betting Odds, Spreads & Picks 2023

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28 December 2023

Liberty Bowl Betting Odds, Spreads & Picks 2023

The Memphis Tigers boast a ton of offensive firepower behind Seth Henigan and can score nearly at will against anyone. The flip side is their defense allows opponents to put up similarly gaudy numbers, which could play into the Liberty Bowl vs. Iowa State.

The high-scoring Memphis Tigers offense will get a taste of a tough Power 5 defensive when they take on the Iowa State Cyclones in Friday afternoon's Liberty Bowl.

Memphis sat just behind the top tier of the American Athletic Conference this year, finishing 6-2 in league play and falling short of the title game. Iowa State was competitive in the Big 12 all year long, but couldn’t keep up in matchups against the Texas Longhorns and the Oklahoma Sooners.

The college football odds expect this to be a high-scoring game, as the Tigers find the end zone with regularity but often fail to keep opponents in check. We’ll see if Iowa State can bring some order to the contest in our free college football picks and predictions for Memphis vs. Iowa State on Friday, December 29.

Memphis vs Iowa State best odds

Memphis vs Iowa State picks and predictions

The Memphis Tigers displayed one of the most explosive offensive attacks in the country this year, averaging 39.7 points per game. Yes, a lot of that production came against weaker opponents, but we can’t ignore the fact that this was good enough for seventh in the nation. It’s also worth noting that not a single team was able to hold Memphis below 21 points, and only three held them to less than 30.

The Tigers offense is led by quarterback Seth Henigan, who threw for 3,519 yards and 28 touchdowns this season while completing 66.4% of his passes. If anything, Henigan got better down the stretch, throwing for 15 scores against just two interceptions over Memphis’ last six games.

Great through the air, the Tigers are also strong on the ground. Memphis averages a solid 4.6 yards per rushing attempt, but that understates the team’s real productivity. Leading running back Blake Watson has rushed for 1,045 yards and 14 touchdowns while averaging 5.9 yards per carry, making him an excellent option that keeps the defense more than honest.

The way I’m talking about Memphis, you might be wondering how they aren’t even ranked in any of the major polls. The issue is that as good as the Tigers have been on offense, they’ve been nearly as bad on the defensive end.

Memphis is giving up a disgusting 422.7 yards per game, as well as an average of 29 points. Each of its last 10 opponents has scored at least 21 points, with seven eclipsing 31. This is a thoroughly unbalanced team that needs to outscore the opposition in shootouts to win.

The Iowa State Cyclones will try to challenge that game plan. The Cyclones are solid defensively, ranking 35th in the nation by allowing 21.7 points per game. They’ve kept some strong offenses largely in check this year, such as holding Texas to just 26 points (albeit in a loss).

But while Iowa State is good on defense, it's not elite. While some mid-major powerhouses may struggle when they face the best of the best, the Cyclones don’t reach that territory, and Memphis won’t be overwhelmed or struck by awe when they face off against the Iowa State defense. These are not the Iowa Hawkeyes here, thankfully.

The Cyclones may well win this game, as they have a solid enough offense that will be able to take advantage of a Memphis defense that is weak even by AAC standards. But that just tells me that both teams can light up the scoreboard on Friday.

Rather than predict who will be able to get the best of what should be an exciting offensive battle, I’m just going to bank on this game being a shootout, something both teams have found themselves in plenty of times this year.

My best bet: Over 57 (-112 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Memphis vs Iowa State same-game parlay

Over 57

Memphis +9.5

Iowa State team total Over 30.5

I’m not convinced this Iowa State defense has what it takes to shut down the Tigers, at least not to such an extent that it will be able to score a blowout win. That’s why I’m going to throw in a bet on Memphis to cover the 9.5-point spread in addition to taking the Over in my same-game parlay.

That said, we can’t count on Memphis to slow down Iowa State, either. Most of the Tigers’ opponents have easily gotten to 31+ points this season, and Iowa State ranks among the toughest tests for their defense this season. I’m picking the Cyclones to go Over 30.5 points to round out this SGP.

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Memphis vs Iowa State spread and Over/Under analysis

Iowa State opened the Liberty Bowl as a seven-point favorite. The spread has increased since then, with Iowa State -9.5 now the consensus number across the industry. Most sites are offering -110 on both sides of the line.

The Cyclones have been solid against the spread this year, putting up a 7-5 record. Memphis, on the other hand, has largely disappointed bettors, going 4-7-1 ATS.

Iowa State will have the best of this game down the stretch, as I think the Cyclones defense will be able to make a couple of key stops — something the Tigers may struggle to do at any point in the game. However, this is a game with a ton of variance, as we see any time we expect both offenses to have the advantage when they’re on the field. I’m leaning towards taking Memphis +9.5, simply because I can’t confidently expect Iowa State to win in a blowout.

The total for this game opened at 57.5. That remains the most common Over/Under on the board, though a few books have moved to a flat 57 points instead. Almost all books are offering -110 on both sides of the 57.5 number.

The Memphis offense is no joke, and the Over has gone an impressive 10-2 when the Tigers play. Iowa State has played slightly toward the Under with a 5-7 O/U mark in its games.

It’s hard to find any justification for playing the Under here, though. Iowa State has surpassed the 57.5 total in two of its last three games, and it’s not as though teams can’t score against them, as they have allowed at least 26 points in three of their last four outings. Meanwhile, Memphis has played well above this total in each of its last six games.