Lightning vs Islanders Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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08 February 2024

Lightning vs Islanders Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Ilya Sorokin is regarded as one of the the best netminders in the world, but his numbers haven't lived up to that status this season. With that said, our NHL picks believe Sorokin is in a great spot against a sliding Tampa side.

The New York Islanders are 2-2-1 with new head coach Patrick Roy behind the bench, and they draw the Tampa Bay Lightning on the second leg of a back-to-back road spot tonight.

Tampa lost 3-1 to the Rangers last night and is likely turning to backup goalie Jonas Johansson for the trip to Long Island. The Isles have been incredibly competitive on home ice and have lost just six of 25 games in regulation at UBS Arena. Unfortunately, New York has dropped five more in overtime and another two in a shootout.

Still, with the Bolts in a potentially tough schedule spot and coming off consecutive losses, it’s New York who is trading as a home favorite in the NHL odds.

Here are my free NHL picks for the Lightning vs. Islanders on Thursday, February 8.

Lightning vs Islanders odds

Lightning vs Islanders predictions

The New York Islanders have allowed the second-most shots (34.4) and attempts (69.3) per 60 minutes this season and sport a 27th-ranked 46.3 Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5. Additionally, while there have been glimpses under new bench boss Patrick Roy, the new-coach bump can only do so much. The Isles just surrendered 36 shots to the Toronto Maple Leafs on Monday, after all.

I wish I had a better feel for this game because I like the Islanders to win at home, but the Tampa Bay Lightning losing three straight out of the All-Star break wasn’t on my bingo card. Plus, even with this being a road back-to-back spot, the trip from Manhattan to Elmont can hardly be deemed travel.

So, I’m turning to Ilya Sorokin and his 27.5-save total. The perennial Vezina Trophy candidate turned away 34 of 36 shots in Monday’s win over the Maple Leafs, and I’m anticipating him to continue playing well. Sorokin entered Monday’s contest with a.909 SV% and 0.02 goals saved above average per 60 minutes, and those numbers are way below his .924 and 0.59 marks over the previous two years.

Tampa Bay only registered 19 shots during Wednesday’s loss to the New York Rangers, so pucks on net will be a point of attention for tonight’s game. And, as a result, it’s the perfect setup for Sorokin’s statistical correction to continue.

My best bet: Ilya Sorokin Over 27.5 saves (-125 at DraftKings)

Lightning vs Islanders same-game parlay

Islanders moneyline

Ilya Sorokin Over 27.5 saves

Tampa Bay ranks 24th in goals and 22nd in expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 on the road and rank third last in goals against. Add backup Jonas Johansson likely starting and sporting a confidence-shattering .894 SV% and 3.34 GAA for the campaign, and this game is on a platter for New York.

Additionally, as mentioned, the Islanders have been uber competitive at UBS Arena. A New York win also aligns with my best bet.

I also value the +200 odds through bet365 because this same-game parlay is trading at just +192 through DraftKings. The difference might only be a positive expected value of 3%, but an edge is an edge, am I right?

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Lightning vs Islanders moneyline and Over/Under analysis

There has been consistent movement to the New York side of this moneyline since the Islanders opened as a -120 favorite Wednesday afternoon through bet365. The game went off the board with Tampa Bay in action last night and then reopened with the Islanders -130. New York is trading as a -140 home favorite as of Thursday afternoon.

The total has also seen consistent action to the Over at bet365. It’s moved from 6.0 to 6.5, and the 6.5 is now trading at -110 on both sides. Tampa Bay played to the Under on Wednesday with just four total goals, but the Lightning won each of their previous three games with a 6-3 score. Interestingly, the Under has hit in four of the past five Islanders’ games.