Lightning vs Rangers Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

It's been a lopsided rivalry over the years in favor of the Lightning, so getting Tampa Bay at favorable odds is too good to pass up tonight. Find out more by checking out our Lightning vs. Rangers betting picks.

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There is an Eastern Conference tilt to open Wednesday’s action on TNT with the New York Rangers set to play host to the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Will the Lightning continue their winning way against the Blueshirts, or can the Rangers defend home ice? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Lightning vs. Rangers on April 5.

Lightning vs Rangers best odds

Lightning vs Rangers picks and predictions

Entering this contest in good form, the Tampa Bay Lightning have won three straight games and seven of their last 12. A big part of this success is the stellar play of goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is slated to start between the pipes on Wednesday.

Over his last four starts in the crease, Vasilevskiy is 3-1 with an absurd .978 save percentage (SV%) and 0.75 goals against average (GAA). The future Hall of Famer is peaking at the right time of the season, something that is likely to continue against the New York Rangers.

In his career against New York, Vasilevskiy boasts a .922 SV% and 2.52 GAA. Based on his underlying metrics, regression is unlikely for Tampa’s netminder.

Among starting goaltenders, Vasilevskiy ranks seventh in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5. Additionally, Vasilevskiy should get some strong goal support in this contest.

At 5-on-5, the Bolts rank eighth in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). Meanwhile, the Rangers enter tonight just 22nd in xGF/60 at 5-on-5, which should especially be problematic against the red-hot Vasilevskiy.

Typically, New York relies on special teams to produce its best high-danger scoring chances, ranking ninth in the league in PP%. However, this facet of the game could be neutralized by a Tampa club that ranks in the top half of the league in PK%.

The Bolts are more solid in their all-around game than the Rangers, and while they may not win tonight, it is a gift to get them at plus money.

My best bet: Lightning moneyline (+100 at BetRivers)

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Lightning vs Rangers moneyline analysis

Undoubtedly, the biggest concern in backing Tampa is the fact that goaltender Igor Shesterkin is starting across the ice from Vasilevskiy. While Vasilevskiy is a future first-ballot Hall of Famer and is one of the best goaltenders on the planet, Shesterkin is arguably the only goaltender in the league who is better.

There is no reason to doubt that Shesterkin will put on another virtuoso performance. He is in great form, his underlying metrics are excellent, and his track record against the Bolts is strong.

However, the team in front of him is due for regression. At 5-on-5, New York ranks 10th in the league in GF/60 but just 22nd in xGF/60.

This regression should be especially problematic against Vasilevskiy.

Lightning vs Rangers Over/Under analysis

Two of the best goaltenders on Earth are slated to square off in this contest, which means goals are going to be difficult to come by. 

However, I would rather just back Tampa at plus money than mess with the total. The main reason for this avoidance is that the Bolts rank eighth in the league in xGF/60 at 5-on-5 and could give Shesterkin the ever-rare bad outing.

Both clubs also rank in the bottom half of the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5. With this dichotomy, I would rather just take the Bolts on the moneyline than wager on the total.

Lightning vs Rangers betting trend to know

Dating back to the last year's postseason, the Bolts have won five of the last six meetings between these two clubs. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs Rangers.