Lightning vs Penguins Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

Between two elite offenses, two below-average defenses, and the two backup goalies between the pipes today, our NHL betting picks expect a ton of scoring. Back the Over in what should be an exciting Eastern Conference matchup.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Sunday evening sees the Pittsburgh Penguins hosting the Tampa Bay Lightning, with Tampa looking to jump Toronto in the Atlantic and Pittsburgh trying to hold onto its one-point advantage in the Wild Card.

Will the Penguins take care of business on home ice, or can the Lighting grab two big points on the road? Find out in our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Lightning vs. Penguins below.

Lightning vs Penguins best odds

Lightning vs Penguins picks and predictions

The Tampa Bay Lightning enter this contest amidst a flurry of high-scoring contests, with seven or more total goals scored in seven of their last 11 games.

This trend is mostly due to the Bolts’ electrifying offense, which features three players that would be the best forward on most teams throughout the league between Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Steven Stamkos.

At 5-on-5, Tampa ranks seventh in the league in expected goals per 60 minutes (xGF/60). However, the Lightning’s one weakness is their thin blue line which makes life difficult for their goaltenders.

Entering this matchup, Tampa ranks just 19th in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5. Backing up this defensively thin group is goaltender Brian Elliott, who is slated to get the start in net since starting netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy started in last night’s win over the Red Wings.

While Elliott is a more-than-capable backup, he is still a large step down from Vasilevskiy. Through 14 starts between the pipes this season, he possesses a .904 save percentage (SV%). 

Across the ice, goaltender Casey DeSmith is projected to start between the pipes for the Pittsburgh Penguins. Like Elliott, DeSmith’s performance is underwhelming this season. Through 28 appearances, he's 10-12-4 with a .904 SV% and 3.28 GAA. Based on his metrics, brighter days ahead are unlikely for DeSmith.

If he qualified, DeSmith would rank 20th among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5. To be fair to the Penguins’ netminder, the defense in front of him struggles mightily.

At 5-on-5, Pittsburgh ranks just 22nd in the league in xGA/60. However, goal support should not be too difficult to come by as the Penguins rank fourth in the league in xGF/60 at 5-on-5.

This game features two elite offenses and two below-average defenses, both of which are skating in front of backup goaltenders, which means that seven goals should not be too difficult to come by.

My best bet: Over 6.5 (-117 at BetRivers)

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Lightning vs Penguins moneyline analysis

This game is correctly priced as a pick'em. Both teams are relatively even both offensively and defensively, with a slight edge to Tampa that is offset by the fact that Pittsburgh boasts home-ice advantage.

Another edge the Bolts would possess in this contest is goaltending if all-world netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy was starting between the pipes, but since Elliott is expected to get the nod, the goaltending matchup is likely a wash or even a slight edge to the Penguins with DeSmith guarding the cage on the other side.

Sunday night features a great game that should be entertaining, and I would rather take the Over than pick a side.

Lightning vs Penguins Over/Under analysis

Elliott’s below-average play is likely to continue against Pittsburgh, a team he struggles mightily against. Over his last five starts against the Penguins, he is 1-3-1 with a .853 SV% and 4.43 goals against average (GAA).

There were seven or more total goals scored in all five of those games. Meanwhile, in DeSmith’s lone career start against the Bolts, he allowed five goals on 34 shots for a troubling .853 SV% en route to a 5-4 loss.

Look for both of these goaltenders to struggle once again when facing these two elite offenses.

Lightning vs Penguins betting trend to know

There have been seven or more total goals scored in each of Brian Elliott’s last five starts against the Penguins. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs Penguins.