Line Movement for Week 16
There’s always an overabundance of hustle and bustle that goes on during the week leading up to Christmas, and the NFL Week 16 line movement is definitely getting into the spirit of the holiday.
Plenty of lines have been on the go during the week. Three games saw a spread change of at least four points. Another three games were witness to a total move accounting for no fewer than five points.
Quarterback injuries are the root cause of the majority of this line movement in the odds and spreads. The Philadelphia Eagles (Jalen Hurts), Tennessee Titans (Ryan Tannehill), Arizona Cardinals (Kyler Murray), and Baltimore Ravens (Lamar Jackson) will all be without their QB1 for their Week 16 game.
Before taking a deeper dive into analysis of this week’s line movement, let’s look at the up-to-the-minute Week 16 NFL odds.
NFL Week 16 Betting Lines
Odds as of December 23 at Caesars Sportsbook. Claim the Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on the NFL this weekend
In Week 16 against the spread picks, home teams are favored in nine of 15 games. There is one game with a total as high as 50 points. However, six games are showing over/unders that are less than 40 points.
NFL Week 16 Biggest Line Movement
At the outset of the week, the Houston Texans were 7-point road underdogs at the AFC South-leading Tennessee Titans. Then word broke that Titans QB Tannehill was out with an ankle injury. The line quickly shortened to Tennessee -3.
Likewise, the NFC South-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers grew from a 4-point road pick to the 7.5-point away chalk at Arizona once it became apparent that #3 QB Trace McSorley was starting for the Cardinals.
However, the biggest spread move of the week is featured in the huge NFC East showdown in Dallas between the Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles, owners of an NFL-best 13-1 slate, opened as 1.5-point road favorites. Then the news came that Eagles QB1 Hurts, a leading contender in the NFL MVP odds, was out with a shoulder injury. The line scurried quickly in the other direction. Dallas is now the 4.5-point home chalk, a 6-point swing in the odds.
Biggest Total Movement In Week 16 NFL Lines
The NFL betting sites are also seeing dramatic movement in the totals for a number of games. The Dallas-Philadelphia game went from 51 points down to 46.5. The Titans-Texans over/under shrunk from 41.5 to 35.5.
In Week 16, though, the largest total move is being seen in the game between the Ravens and Atlanta Falcons. Baltimore backup Tyler Huntley will be making his third straight start. For the Falcons, rookie Desmond Ridder is starting under center for the second time in his NFL career.
The total on the Ravens-Falcons game was at 40.5 points in the Week 16 opening lines. It’s shortened to 34.5 points, a 6-point change.
Trio of Tiny Spreads
Three games are sharing the honor for the smallest spread of Week 16. Back on Dec. 23, 1972, when they met in the legendary Immaculate Reception game, the Pittsburgh Steelers were 2-point home favorites over the Raiders. As the two clubs meet again in Pittsburgh on Christmas Eve, Las Vegas arrives in the Steel City as 2.5-point away underdogs.
The Detroit Lions are a road favorite for the first time since Nov. 22, 2020, when they went to Carolina as a 3-point away pick over the Panthers. This time, Detroit is again in Carolina and sitting as the 2.5-point away chalk. The NFL public betting trends are strongly supporting the Lions. Detroit is drawing 88% of both spread and moneyline handle.
Also, the Denver Broncos are 2.5-point road favorites at the Los Angeles Rams. It Denver wins, the Rams will be suffering their 11th loss of the season. That would surpass the 1999 Broncos (6-10) for the most defeats suffered by a reigning Super Bowl champion.
Oddsmakers Going Big On Chiefs Again
What’s that old saying about insanity being doing the same over and over again and expecting a different outcome? Well, the largest spread of Week 16 is showing the Kansas City Chiefs as a 10-point home pick over the Seattle Seahawks.
Last week, the Chiefs failed to cover against the Texans as the 14-point chalk. One week earlier, KC didn’t cover as a 9-point pick at Denver.
Then again, those were road games. At home against the Rams in Week 12, the Chiefs won 26-10 as a 15.5-point home pick.
Getting The Lowdown On Saints vs Browns
The 32-point total assigned to the New Orleans Saints vs Cleveland Browns game isn’t just the lowest of Week 16, of the lowest of the 2022 NFL season. In fact, it’s the lowest total given to an NFL game since 2008.
It’s not far off the record for the lowest total ever in an NFL game. On Christmas weekend 1993, both the Patriots-Colts and Lions-Bengals were given 28-point totals. If you’re wondering, both games went over.
As for the Browns, they’ve gone under in four straight games. The Saints have hit on the under in three successive games and six of seven.
Dolphins And Packers Expected To Pile Up Points
The largest total of Week 16 is set for South Beach. As the Miami Dolphins play host to the Green Bay Packers, the over/under is set at 50 points.
It’s the fourth Miami game assigned a total of 50 or more points. The Dolphins are 1-2 on the total in those games.
Green Bay has gone over in three of the past four games. Fifty points is the highest total assigned to a Packers game this season. Since the start of the 2020 season, Green Bay is 6-8 on the over/under when the total is set at 50+ points.
