Lions vs. Cowboys Prediction, Pick & Odds Week 17: Don’t Overlook NFC North Champs

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30 December 2023

Lions vs. Cowboys Prediction, Pick & Odds Week 17: Don’t Overlook NFC North Champs

The newly crowned NFC North champions, the Detroit Lions, visit the Dallas Cowboys on Saturday night, and we're offering our top Lions vs. Cowboys prediction based on the best NFL odds.

Detroit clinched its first division crown since 1993 with its Week 16 win over the Minnesota Vikings. Additionally, it matched its most wins in a season since 2014 with No. 11.

The Cowboys, though, haven't been so fortunate lately. They've lost two games in a row, both to AFC East juggernauts. First, the Bills destroyed Dallas in Buffalo, and then the Miami Dolphins won a tightly contested affair at home last week.

However, Dallas returns home in Week 17, where it's a perfect 7-0 this season. Can the Cowboys continue that run, or will they fall for a third straight game?

In addition to our NFL Week 17 predictions and NFL Week 17 player props,and to accompany our Lions vs. Cowboys player props,here are our best Lions vs. Cowboys prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Lions vs. Cowboys prediction

Sportsbooksproject to need a Detroit cover come Saturday, as most of the bettors will buyinto Dallas’s home success and the fact that the Lions could be in store for aletdown after clinching their first division title in 30 years. However, thisline feels too inflated given those circumstances, and we expect Coach of theYear odds frontrunner Dan Campbell to have his team ready to play with a chanceat the NFC’s No. 2 seed still within reach.

TheLions may have allowed 373 passing yards to the Vikings, but they wereopportunistic with four interceptions and four sacks (as well as 11 quarterbackhits), which is concerning for Cowboys backers. Dallas allowed three differentDolphins defenders to have four-plus quarterback pressures (Andrew Van Ginkelwith eight, Bradley Chubb with five, and Zach Sieler with four). In addition,Lions quarterback Jared Goff was cool and composed against Minnesota’srelentless blitzing, going 22-of-28 for 183 yards and a touchdown, as well as a+5.0 completion percentage over expected when blitzed, per Next Gen Stats. Inaddition, Detroit’s offensive line deserves huge kudos for allowing just onesack despite Goff facing his highest blitz rate (68.3%) of the season.

Dallashas a +171 point differential at home and has averaged 39.9 points per game atAT&T Stadium, but even if this game turns into a track meet, the Lions cankeep up with eight games with 30-plus points this season. In addition, theCowboys are under .500 (3-4) against teams that are currently holding a winningrecord. This is a three-star play, as Goff has completed at least 60% of hispasses in 15 of his last 16 games, and he is 23-8 ATS in the previous threeseasons when playing indoors, as opposed to going 34-35-2 outdoors ATS in hiscareer.

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Lions vs. Cowboys best odds

Lionsbackers will find the best point spread value at DraftKings, the only one of our best sports betting sites offering +6.5 compared to all other competitors a half-point lower. DraftKingsdoes not charge much more in juice for the better line, and thus, we would notput anyone off backing the alternate line of +7 or +7.5 when they becomeavailable.

Detroitis 19-6 ATS in its last 25 games.

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Lions vs. Cowboysodds

Anyline movement on the point spread has gone in Dallas’ favor. DraftKings andbet365 opened at -5 on Christmas Eve, while FanDuel and Caesars got to theircurrent numbers from opening lines of -5.5. Whatever action has been on Dallasis likely from sharps, as there has been nearly dead two-way action (51/49 infavor of the Lions). These are two of the most profitable ATS teams thisseason, as the Lions are 10-5 ATS, while the Cowboys have covered nine of their15 games.

Allthe best sportsbooks are in unison with an O/U of 53.5 points (-110 on eitherside of the total), while BetRivers is the only one that differs at 52.5.DraftKings has seen the biggest line movement from 51.5 since Christmas Eve,while all other competitors are up a full point from 52.5. There has beenlopsided action on the Over, attracting 71% of the early wagers.

TheOver is 10-2 in Dallas’ last 12 home games.