Packers vs. Raiders Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 5

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06 October 2023

Packers vs. Raiders Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 5

Two of the league’s most storied franchises meet on Monday Night Football as the Las Vegas Raiders host the Green Bay Packers, and we have you covered with our top Packers-Raiders predictions for Monday Night Football based on the best NFL odds.

Green Bay is behind the eight ball in the NFC North race after falling to 2-2 with last week’s loss to the Detroit Lions. It was the Packers’ fourth consecutive loss to the Lions, the team that denied them a playoff spot in the final game of last season.

Las Vegas is 1-3 and the only team to score fewer than 20 points in all four games this season. Rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell committed three turnovers and was sacked seven times in his NFL debut against the Los Angeles Chargers last week.

Here is our best Packers vs. Raiders prediction for Monday Night Football (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Packers vs. Raiders prediction: Monday Night Football

Aaron Jones Over 48.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

With Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo in the final stages of the concussion protocol, there is too much uncertainty to take a stance on either the spread or total. However, after last week’s poor performance, we are buying a big bounce-back effort from Packers running back Aaron Jones.

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Jones carried the ball just five times for 18 yards against the Lions, but we suspect his limited usage was more a product of game flow (Detroit had a 27-3 halftime lead) than a hamstring injury that kept him out the week prior. Jones entered the week ranked just behind Miami Dolphins running back De’Von Achane in fantasy points per opportunity (2.1 to Achane’s 2.2), and we expect Matt LaFleur to force-feed his running back this week, given how the offense looked when operated mainly by quarterback Jordan Love.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Lions pressured Love on almost 50% of his dropbacks without blitzing, and every Packers offensive lineman allowed at least one pressure. Given the offensive line issues, Love’s 10.5-yard league-high average depth of target is likely not sustainable, and the best way to take the pressure off of him is to establish a sound running game.

This is a four-star play, as we are not worried about Jones’ poor performance against Detroit based on what the Lions have done to star running backs this season. Detroit held Bijan Robinson to 33 yards, Kenneth Walker III to 43 yards, and Isiah Pacheco managed just 23 yards against the Lions’ front. Jones is in a tremendous buy-low spot entering this week.

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Packers vs. Raiders best odds

For Over backers, the biggest thing drawing us to bet365 as our go-to shop is that it is the only sportsbook not charging more than the standard -110 juice.

Those who think Jones is in for a big day on the ground may be enticed by his anytime touchdown scorer props, which are as low as +125 at FanDuel.

Packers vs. Raiders odds for Monday Night Football

The Packers-Raiders point spread has jumped the fence at most of the best sports betting apps this week, with Green Bay opening as high as 1.5-point favorites on Monday morning, while Las Vegas has switched to -1 across most shops. The line movement likely has more to do with bettors feeling confident that Jimmy Garoppolo will be under center than being dictated by the betting splits, as just 55% of the early wagers are on the Raiders. Green Bay is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.

DraftKings is the only sportsbook with a total of 45, as all other competitors are in unison at 44.5. The O/U has risen across the board this week, as all shops opened with a total of 43.5. The Under is 4-1 in Las Vegas’ last five games.

For those wanting to eschew the small point spread, and back the moneyline, DraftKings is on the low end at Las Vegas -112, while FanDuel is highest at -116. Green Bay is unbeaten in its last six MNF games.