Louisville vs. Virginia odds, spread, line: 2023 college football picks, Week 11 predictions from proven model
The 11th-ranked Louisville Cardinals aim to avoid another slip-up Thursday night when they host the Virginia Cavaliers in college football Week 11. Louisville (8-1, 5-1) suffered a surprising 38-21 ACC loss to Pittsburgh three weeks ago but has won its past two convincingly. Virginia (2-7, 1-4) enters on a two-game slide that followed its only two victories of the season. Louisville won last year's meeting in Charlottesville, beating the Cavaliers 34-17.
Kickoff at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky. is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. SportsLine consensus lists the Cardinals as 20-point favorites in its latest Virginia vs. Louisville odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 50.5. Before making any Louisville vs. Virginia picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a stunning profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Virginia vs. Louisville and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine to see the model's CFB picks. Here are several college football odds and trends for Louisville vs. Virginia:
- Virginia vs. Louisville spread: Cardinals -20
- Virginia vs. Louisville over/under: 50.5 points
- Virginia vs. Louisville money line: Cavaliers +784, Cardinals -1358
- UVA: Is 5-3 ATS in its past eight games as a road underdog.
- LOU: Is 10-1 ATS as the home team since the start of 2022.
- Virginia vs. Louisville picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Virginia vs. Louisville live stream: fubo (try for free)
Why Louisville can cover
The Cardinals learned their lesson from the loss at Pittsburgh, when they turned the ball over three times. They have outscored their two opponents since then by a combined score of 57-3. Louisville is allowing just 16.3 points per game, second in the ACC and tied for 13th in FBS. The Cavaliers allow 32.4 per game (115th in FBS) and have given up at least 24 in every one. The Cardinals have won 10 straight games at home, while UVA is 2-8 in its past 10 on the road.
Louisville should have no trouble running the ball against a UVA defense that yields 180 yards per game on the ground (115th in FBS). The Cardinals rushed for 231 yards last week against Virginia Tech, with Isaac Guerendo going for 146 and three touchdowns. Jahwar Jordan has rushed for 881 yards and averages 7.1 per carry and is one of six Cavaliers with at least 175 receiving yards. Quarterback Jack Plummer has thrown for 2,159 yards and 14 TDs. See which team to pick here.
Why Virginia can cover
The Cavaliers proved against North Carolina that they can pull off a big upset, beating the then-No. 10 Tar Heels 31-27 on the road. Then they went to Miami and took the Hurricanes to overtime before losing 29-26. Quarterback Tony Muskett, who led those two victories, is uncertain with an ankle injury, but Anthony Colandrea has started four games this season. The freshman has thrown for at least 200 yards and rushed for at least 30 in his past two starts.
Whichever quarterback is available will rely heavily on Malik Washington, who is third in FBS with 1,044 receiving yards. He has topped 100 in seven of the past eight games. Fellow receiver Malachi Fields had five catches for 65 yards in last week's loss to Georgia Tech and has 44 receptions this season. Running backs Perris Jones and Kobe Pace have combined for 892 total yards and six TDs. Virginia has 10 takeaways and Louisville has turned it over 11 times. See which team to pick here.
How to make Virginia vs. Louisville picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 56 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
