LSU’s odds of representing SEC in expanded college football playoff

The momentum around this LSU team continues to build with spring ball less than two weeks away. This program poured a lot of resources into making the kind of changes that Brian Kelly is banking on blending the short term with the long term future of the program. 

Welcoming 35 new players to the roster this offseason, plus the additions on the defensive staff and promotions within the No. 1 ranked offense make this a very intriguing program to talk about. This week the college football playoff was officially expanded to a 12 team model.

During a recent episode of the 247Sports Football Recruiting Podcast, the Tigers were chosen as a sleeper to represent the SEC in the 2024 college football playoff. 

"I'm going LSU," director of scouting Andrew Ivins said. "I think the addition of Blake Baker, what they have done on the defensive side of the ball. I'm a Garrett Nussmeier fan and I think that they could be a potential sleeper in 2024 and I think you look towards 2025. I'm gonna go with LSU."

With the expansion to a 12 team playoff officially being approved this week that will move to a five conference champion model plus seven additional teams model, the realistic option exists that a conference like the SEC could have two or three representatives. LSU’s schedule in 2024 is one of the more daunting when combining the non-conference and conference slate.

The other teams discussed in this podcast as ‘sleeper’ candidates, included Oklahoma, Alabama and Tennessee, two of which are on the Tigers’ schedule this year. There are a lot of questions about the Crimson Tide and the massive undertaking for Kalen Debour in year one with that program. The Sooners visit Baton Rouge in the final regular season matchup of the year in what could have serious implications on seeding by that point. 

Just going by the Vegas odds, Georgia and Texas are viewed as the most likely teams to finish at the top of the conference with an over/under set at 10.5 wins. Meanwhile, LSU and Alabama and Missouri over/under are set at 9.5 with Tennessee at 8.5 and Oklahoma at 7.5 wins. LSU is currently tied for the seventh best odds at +1500 to win the national championship, which hints at Vegas giving the purple and gold a good chance of making it to the playoff. 

But what will it take to get there? A nine win season like the Tigers had in 2023 would make it a coin flip as the purple and gold were No. 13 by the final playoff announcement last year.

Which programs in that grouping can finish with 10 wins in the 2024 regular season? It’s hard to envision a 10 win SEC team not getting in the new expanded playoff, especially with the strength of schedule throughout the conference. The path for LSU is there in year three to play meaningful postseason football. 

While it should absolutely be an expectation that the Tigers compete for a playoff spot this season, one of the main reasons talking heads nationally are so intrigued by the purple and gold this offseason is because of those defensive staff changes. Baker, Bo Davis, Kevin Peoples, Corey Raymond and Jake Olsen are viewed as a staff that rivals the best in the country. 

There’s work to be done in finding the ideal ways to utilize the talent on defense but it's the belief of many around the program that this staff will be able to get the most out of the players on this defense in 2024. 

Even getting the defense to the middle of the pack in the country or slightly above that would be a major progress for the future and the Tigers’ playoff hopes. The offense will also be an interesting group to watch as having to replace so much of what made 2023 such a well oiled machine is no easy task.

But there’s enough returning continuity on staff with Joe Sloan and Cortez Hankton steering the ship, as well as a veteran offensive line to protect Nussmeier, a fourth-year quarterback who’s ready for a full offseason as ‘the guy’ and a wide ranging group of skill players. 

It all starts with getting on the field for spring practice, which is just several days away and where we’ll get a first glimpse of how all these pieces could start to fit together.