Major League Soccer betting tips: Why home-field advantage matters a lot
Stefan Szymanski developed a model to predict the standings in European soccer using players' estimated valuations on Transfermarkt.com. He compared his model's success rate to the bookies' and found that the model is similar in MLS. Home-field advantage plays a big role in the outcome of games. The data shows that playing at home matters more than away. In the Premier League, the home team won 52.2% of the games, while the away team's won 23.9%. In MLS, home teams won 45.7% and away teams 30.3%.
