Man City Premier League title chances 'drop 50 percent' as Arsenal and Liverpool benefit
Manchester City have won just one of their last six games, allowing Arsenal and Liverpool to pull away in the race to win the Premier League title heading into the festive period
Manchester City's recent poor form has since their chances of winning the Premier League drop by more than 50 percent, according to a new supercomputer.
The reigning champions have won just one of their last six games in the top-flight, throwing away a two goal lead in a draw with Crystal Palace at the weekend. They have also drawn with Chelsea, Liverpool and Tottenham, as well as losing to Aston Villa.
During their difficult period, Arsenal, Liverpool and Villa have been able to pull away, with City now five points adrift of top spot. At the start of the season, City had been given a 90.2 percent chance of retaining their title for a fourth successive time by Opta.
Their chances have plummeted now though, with Opta giving them a 39.3 percent chance of winning the league, a drop of 50.9 percent from the start of the season. The draw with Palace saw their odds plummet by 8.5 percent, though they are still the favourites.
Arsenal are rated as their closest rivals, with the Gunners' lead at the top of the table standing at one point ahead of Liverpool heading into the festive period. Mikel Arteta's men are given a 29.9 percent chance of winning their first title in 20 years by Opta, an increase of 25.8 percent from pre-season.
Liverpool have launched somewhat of a surprise title challenge, though their hopes are down at 23.6 percent. Despite their bore draw with Manchester United, their chances have flown up, having been rated as just 3.5 percent favourites before the campaign.
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Talking of surprises, Aston Villa have come from nowhere to put themselves firmly in the title conversation. They are now rated as the fourth-most likely team to win the league, though they are still down at 6.8 percent.
City have a short break from league action while they take part in the Club World Cup. And former Newcastle star Alan Shearer believes they can recover from their poor form to have say in the title race.
"Compared with the high standards they set themselves, City have hit a sticky patch. It just shows you that, even if you are as great as they are, when games are tight at the finish then uncertainty can creep in when you are on a run where you are not winning," he told BBC Sport.
"They are just not used to that, because they have had things very much their own way for such a long time. Their points total is the lowest at this stage of the season since Pep Guardiola took charge in 2016, which is a concern.
"And if they are going to win the title again then it looks like they will have to do it in a different way to the years where they have been the dominant team. Even so, it would be foolish to write them off, because they are far too good for that.
"They will have ground to make up when they get back from the Club World Cup, but I still expect them to go on one of their long winning runs. They have got Erling Haaland and Kevin de Bruyne to come back into the team, of course they are going to figure in the title race."
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