Man United vs Bournemouth predictions: Premier League tips
Manchester United vs Bournemouth betting tips:
Manchester United recovered from a dreadful showing in their loss at Newcastle last weekend by beating Chelsea 2-1 on Wednesday.
It was one of their better attacking performances in recent years, as it was only the fifth time in their last 142 league games at Old Trafford that the Red Devils generated at least four expected goals.
They will look to maintain momentum when they host Bournemouth on Saturday (3pm). It has the potential to be a good game, with the visitors sitting fifth in the Premier League six-game form table, one point and one place above Erik ten Hag’s side in the standings.
United have been made strong favourites to take the three points by football betting sites, but can they be trusted to get the job done when they are in such erratic form? It is unlikely to be straight forward, as their victories rarely have been this season.
Narrow home win incoming
Looking at the Premier League odds and making a prediction for this match feels like the ultimate battle of heart and head, of vibes versus data.
The underlying expected goal (xG) statistics for this season suggest Bournemouth have a far better chance of winning than prices on betting apps imply. Having taken a few months to get going, Andoni Iraola has got the Cherries moving firmly in the right direction.
The south coast side have recorded very dominant xG performances against Newcastle, Sheffield United and Aston Villa in the last month, and were well worth their win at Selhurst Park in midweek.
While that is all true, their two away wins this season occurred against Crystal Palace and the Blades, both of whom start the weekend in the bottom seven of the league table. Similarly, three of Bournemouth’s five victories on the road last term were over teams who finished the season below them, in the bottom five.
The Cherries can look to their 3-2 victory at Tottenham in April for inspiration, but that game aside – and the win there was secured with a 95th minute goal – there is little evidence they can prosper at the home of a top half side.
And while United have delivered some truly shocking performances this term, they remain strong against sides in the bottom half of the table. Aside from a loss to Palace, every other match has been won, home or away. The Red Devils took eight wins and two draws when the eventual bottom 10 sides visited Old Trafford in 2022/23 too.
However, the price on betting sites for a United victory is short and it’s unrealistic to expect them to win handsomely against an in-form team. Every home triumph they’ve had in the league this season has been secured by the narrowest possible one-goal margin and we're backing that trend to continue at a bigger price with bet365 than a straight home victory.
Action at both ends
If you look at a table of matches which saw both teams score and featured at least three goals, you find Bournemouth in mid-table, with eight of their 15 games meeting this criteria, and United further back with six.
Yet the expected goal data for the 2023/24 season suggests this is the fixture most likely to see both sides score and contain three or more goals. Why the discrepancy?
For starters, it has occurred in five of the Cherries’ seven matches on the road and four of the Red Devils’ league fixtures at Old Trafford. It immediately looks a likelier than average outcome for both sides in this fixture rather than it would if they were meeting at the Vitality Stadium.
But United have also conceded the third highest xG total of any home team in the top flight, second most if you discount penalties. Only Crystal Palace and Luton have played there without having at least one Opta-defined big chance this season, and Bournemouth have generated more on the road than either of those sides.
With Iraola’s team having scored in their last seven league matches and finding the net at Manchester City and Liverpool already this term, we're backing them to play their part in a high-scoring game for our second Man Utd vs Bournemouth prediction.
Cards galore with Christmas almost here
The two meetings of these teams in 2022/23 produced a total of just four yellow cards, all of them handed to Bournemouth.
Those games were not officiated by Peter Bankes, though, and he’s the referee for their next meeting. The Merseyside-based official is second among the Premier League’s regular refs for cards per game, has been above division average in four of his five campaigns in the top flight and is averaging five bookings per match this season.
All bar one league match at Old Trafford in 2023/24 has seen four cards, with five of the eight featuring five-or-more. While a touch less frequent in Bournemouth’s away games, there has still been three with more than four cards. Add Bankes into this mix and over 4.5 cards has potential at 7/5 with Unibet.
Andrew Beasley is a widely published football writer and voluntary numbers enthusiast. His love of stats provides him with a wealth of insight which can be applied to betting. He provides football betting tips for The Independent.
