Manchester United vs Man City Odds & Picks

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27 October 2023

Manchester United vs Man City Odds & Picks

With Rodri at the forefront of City's scoring ways in 2023, we're expecting the Spaniard star to play a big factor in Sunday's derby at Old Trafford. Find out more in our Manchester United vs. Man City betting picks.

The city of Manchester will be split in two on Sunday, as Manchester United hosts Manchester City at Old Trafford for an emotional Manchester Derby.

The passing last weekend of Man United and England legend Sir Bobby Charlton sent shockwaves through the soccer world. With the club set to honor him before the match, the atmosphere at Old Trafford will be quite charged. The red side of Manchester will hope that leads to a repeat of last season’s 2-1 win against the reigning champions.

For Manchester City, there is work to be done if they hope to repeat yet again. They sit two points behind Tottenham heading into the weekend, while level on points with Arsenal and Liverpool are hot on their tails. With two defeats in their last three league outings, they’ll be determined to get things back on track with a win.

Our Manchester United vs Manchester City picks and predictions for Sunday, October 29 explain why one player in particular is worth looking at for a great Premier League betting option.

Manchester United vs Man City best odds

EPL predictions for Manchester United vs Man City

Sunday’s derby will be Manchester United’s third match already against a “big six” opponent, and the first two haven’t gone well for them. But it’s how they set up, and how their opponents played against them, that leads to our best bet of Rodri to put a shot on goal.

Manchester City are currently running a 4-2-3-1 formation with two holding midfielders. The base of that midfield is Rodri, who was arguably in the best form of his career before a three-match ban for a red card against Nottingham Forest.

Rodri’s likely partner in the double pivot is Bernardo Silva, and he’s not one to shoot very often. In fact, Silva’s only shot in six Premier League matches this season came in his only appearance off the bench.

That leaves efforts from range to Rodri. And he’s not afraid to shoot against teams that, like Manchester United, allow him the ability to get involved in transition.

When Rodri has set up against a low block, such as Nottingham Forest, he’s typically been more focused on sitting deep and playing the ball around. But against West Ham, Sheffield United, and Burnley, he attempted at least four shots in each match.

Rodri is heavily involved in set pieces, either playing the ball in on free kicks or getting into the area on corners. And with Manchester United likely focusing heavily on denying Erling Haaland the opportunity to get into dangerous spaces and preventing Julian Alvarez from creating chances, it should open things up for Rodri to shoot from distance.

Going back to those two earlier "big six" meetings for Man United, Tottenham midfielder Pape Sarr managed two efforts on goal from the double-pivot in a 4-2-3-1 formation. A few weeks later, Arsenal set up in a 433 with Declan Rice sitting deep. And he also put a shot on goal, one of two he took on the day.

Rodri’s increased involvement in attack this season coincided with the departure of Ilkay Gundogan. With Kevin De Bruyne sidelined, it added more pressure.

Now against a Manchester United side that will allow room from distance to shoot, he has boots to fill... and those are shooting boots. Gundogan had a brace in the FA Cup final and hit the woodwork in their 6-3 win earlier last season.

Harry Maguire will start in defense for Man United, and manager Erik ten Hag will not want him exposed on the counter as he was in that crushing defeat. As such, I expect Man United to sit back a bit more than usual.

That opens the door for Rodri. Whether it’s from a corner kick or an effort from range, he’s got an increased likelihood of putting a shot on goal. Add the fact that TonyBet is offering him to do so at +179, it’s simply too good a price to pass up and it’s one of the best value plays on the board.

My best bet: Rodri 1+ shot on goal (+159 at TonyBet)

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Manchester United vs Man City same-game parlay

Rodri 1+ shot on goal (-175)

Julian Alvarez to score or assist (+100)

Both teams to score - Yes (-134)

This Manchester Derby is sure to be an intriguing one, and we’re backing some goals in our same-game parlay.

While Rodri’s going to be dictating play from deeper-lying areas, there’s no question as to who has filled in as creator in KDB’s absence. Alvarez is arguably Man City’s best player at the moment.

Across all competitions, he’s notched six goals and assisted three more in his last 10 appearances. That includes a goal in two of their last three matches in Premier League play. I expect Alvarez to be involved in most of their chances on Sunday and be involved in yet another score.

Meanwhile, we’re also taking both teams to find the back of the net. Ten Hag and Pep Guardiola are both managers who want to get goals, and these teams match up in a manner that leads to that happening.

Each of their three meetings last season saw goals for both sides, with a total of 15 scored. Meanwhile, City have gone five straight without a clean sheet in all competitions, while Man United’s 1-0 win over FC Copenhagen on Tuesday was their first one in five matches — and that required a penalty save on the match’s final kick.

Combine the three over at bet365, where you’ll get a terrific price of +550 for a very strong SGP!

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Manchester United vs Man City side and Over/Under analysis

Despite Man City’s recent defeats, there’s no question who is favored in this match. The away side are priced at -148 or higher on the 3-way line, and that number has grown as the match has gotten closer.

Man United can be had at an exceptional +450 price at DraftKings, while the draw pays out as high as +310.

There is value on both of those lines, as well as the Manchester United double chance at +115. While the opponents haven’t been anything to write home about, Man United have found ways to fight and claw for three straight wins. That’s not to mention what should be a very engaged crowd as they celebrate the life of a club icon.

They’re also getting Raphael Varane and Sergio Reguilon back in defense. It’s a huge boost against an attack like Man City’s, and it allows ten Hag to play Sofian Amrabat in his usual position — where he’ll likely fill in for Casemiro, who is a serious doubt for the match.

As for the total, the Over 2.5 requires significant juice at -140. Some books have moved to the Asian line of 2.75 goals instead. If you’re willing to buck the trend, the Under can be had at +117.

That said, I’d advise going against the trend. Neither team is doing a great job of keeping the other out, and both are dangerous on the break. There are also absences in defense for both squads, as Manuel Akanji was sent off for Man City in their last league outing.

Four of Man City’s last five matches have gone Over 2.5 goals, as have three of Man United’s last four. That trend should continue here with the firepower on display.

Manchester United vs Man City game info

Manchester United vs Man City key injuries

Manchester United: Lisandro Martinez D (Out), Luke Shaw D (Out), Casemiro M (Doubtful).
Man City: Kevin De Bruyne M (Out), Manuel Akanji D (Out).