Manchester United vs Newcastle Prediction

With scrutiny ramping up on their manager, Manchester United welcomes Newcastle to Old Trafford on Wednesday in a Carabao Cup knockout fixture.

Erik ten Hag is being criticized following Man United’s 3-0 defeat in the Manchester Derby, a scoreline that flatters his side as they were thoroughly outclassed. Elimination from the EFL competition would only fan the flames and heap more pressure on a club that is already quickly fading from contending for European places. 

There are no such concerns for Eddie Howe, but his Newcastle side are already nine points adrift of the league summit after just 10 matches. They’ll be seeking revenge after Manchester United defeated them in the Carabao Cup final a year ago, extending a trophy drought that has now lasted nearly 70 years.

Our Manchester United vs Newcastle picks and predictions explain why we’re going to ride the hot hand—er, foot—of one of the visiting players to come away with profit. 

Manchester United vs Newcastle best odds

Manchester United vs Newcastle picks and predictions

Newcastle are outperforming their attacking metrics this season, and they’ve shown repeatedly they can get hot when firing on all cylinders. They’ve managed 26 goals from 21.9 expected goals in Premier League play.

Newcastle have managed four or more goals scored against Aston Villa, Sheffield United, and Crystal Palace in league play. That’s in addition to a 4-1 win over PSG in the Champions League.

One of the biggest things they have going for them is their depth, especially at striker. While many clubs hope to have one center forward they can rely on, the Magpies have two—and we’re backing one of them to score for our best bet on Wednesday.

Alexander Isak was the hero in the third-round fixture against Manchester City, as his goal was the one to eliminate the Citizens and move Newcastle on in the tournament. But he’s out injured, and in stepped Callum Wilson.

Newcastle’s attack hasn’t missed a beat. In his three starts over the past 10 days, he’s scored three of Newcastle’s six goals including both in a rainy 2-2 draw with Wolves at the weekend. He’s scored a goal in four of his last five starts, with five goals in that span.

Manchester United’s defense has been suspect this season, to say the least. Manchester City took them apart repeatedly, and only Andre Onana’s heroics in goal prevented that scoreline from being much worse than it was for the Red Devils. 

Making matters worse, ten Hag’s team can’t seem to figure out what exactly they want to do offensively. There’s no movement, there’s little creativity, and it often looks like 10 outfield players just running around who have rarely played together. Part of that is due to the injury issues, but it’s not a recipe for success against a team like Newcastle that can hurt you in multiple ways.

Man United have had problems this season with teams that can progress the ball, both via dribbles and passing. Newcastle ranks in the top half of the league in both metrics, while the Red Devils have allowed the third-most progressive carries this season.

Wilson is perfectly suited to benefit from that. His 6.28 penalty area touches per match rank him among the league leaders, and his 12 shots on goal are the eighth-highest of all Premier League players. Only Darwin Nunez has attempted more shots per 90 minutes this season, and only three players have more goals.

Getting Wilson to score anytime at +161, which is the price on offer at TonyBet, is too good to pass up. I’ll back Newcastle’s most dangerous scorer against a team that looks to be in shambles at the moment.   

Should Wilson not start, he’ll likely be replaced by Anthony Gordon. Howe hinted he could play him at striker, and if so we’ll pivot to him instead. He also offers solid value at +224 and despite playing wide much of the season he’s scored three goals while averaging over a shot on goal per 90 as well. 

My best bet: Callum Wilson anytime goalscorer (+161 at TonyBet)

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Manchester United vs Newcastle same-game parlay

Callum Wilson to score

Newcastle double chance (Win/Draw)

Both teams to score — yes

Our same-game parlay sees us heading to FanDuel, and we’re going to combine Wilson’s goal with two other legs for a parlay paying out +525.

Neither team has been stellar defensively of late, as Newcastle’s only clean sheets in their last six matches came against Crystal Palace and Burnley. 

While they did keep Manchester City off the scoresheet, it came against a heavily rotated side that managed just 10 total shots. In addition, there’s likely to be rotation with a match against Arsenal at the weekend. Back both teams to score in this one.

Given Manchester United’s issues, and the likely rotation that ten Hag will be forced into, I’m not trusting them to pull out a victory. Newcastle have an identity and their reserves play within a set system. In a knockout fixture, I’ll go with the more disciplined side to get a result. 

As with our best bet, our pivot should Wilson not start is an Anthony Gordon goal. His inclusion over Wilson bumps the SGP price to just over +700, offering even more profit.

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Manchester United vs Newcastle side and Over/Under analysis

The derby loss ended a three-match win streak for Manchester United, but they’ve not looked outstanding in any of those wins. A late comeback against Brentford, a stellar individual goal against Sheffield United, and a last-second penalty save against Copenhagen allowed them to get those victories.

But despite having lost seven of their 14 matches in all competitions, the Red Devils are favored at home against Newcastle. The 3-way line has them at +115 to win, while the regulation draw pays +255 and a Newcastle win has odds of +240.

Newcastle’s won just once in six away trips this campaign across all competitions, but they’ve gone unbeaten in their last four. They’ve also lost just four times this year, three of which came in the opening four weeks. I’d avoid the 3-way line and instead take Newcastle draw no bet, which can be had for +140 or better. 

The total of 2.5 goals sees the market pretty split. A price of -110 can be had for the Over, while backers of two or fewer goals can get -115. 

Manchester United’s last three matches against British sides have finished with exactly three goals, while there have been four or more goals in Newcastle’s last three domestic fixtures. 

I’m projecting a 2-1 win for Newcastle in regulation so I’d lean Over here, but not enough to say there’s an advantage either way. 

Manchester United vs Newcastle game info

Manchester United vs Newcastle key injuries

Manchester United: Lisandro Martinez D (Out), Luke Shaw D (Out), Casemiro M (Doubtful).
Newcastle: Sandro Tonali M (Out), Alexander Isak F (Out), Sven Botman D (Out).