Lightning vs. Maple Leafs playoff betting preview: Picks and NHL odds for the first-round series

We’ve known the Toronto Maple Leafs were going to be in the playoffs for quite some time. We’ve known they were playing the Tampa Bay Lightning for quite a while, too. What we don’t know, however, is what comes next.

The perennially underachieving Maple Leafs gear up for a series against the three-time-running Eastern Conference champion Lightning. While recent history gives us a certain set of expectations for what comes next, there are plenty of changes that could provide a different outcome.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs betting preview

Toronto and Tampa Bay kick off their series on Tuesday at Scotiabank Arena. and Game 2 will be played on Thursday. The Buds are a slight betting favourite (-148) despite losing to the Bolts in 2022 and failing to win a playoff series since 2004.

NHL odds as of 9:16 a.m. ET on 04/16/2023.

Series winner

These two teams met at this time last year. Tampa Bay won the series in seven games, earning a 2-1 win on the road in Game 7. There are several reasons why we’re expecting the series to differ this time around.

The home team went 4-3 during this series in the 2022 NHL playoffs. Judging by their regular-season results, winning on the road should be tougher for both this time around. Tampa Bay owned the second-best home record in the NHL (28-8-5) this season, while Toronto was third (27-8-6).

Winning on the road should be especially difficult for the Bolts, as they had the 10th-worst road record in the league (18-22-1).

There are key differences to both rosters, also, and it’s the Maple Leafs who enter stronger than ever. The additions of Ryan O’Reilly, Noel Acciari, Calle Jarnkrok and Jake McCabe, among others, make Toronto a much tougher out.

The Lightning, meanwhile, are fielding a roster missing depth that has carried them to three consecutive Stanley Cup finals. Notable departures like Ondrej Palat and Ryan McDonagh hurt their effectiveness at both ends of the ice, while an injury to deadline acquisition Tanner Jeannot is a serious blow.

It’s clear that one roster is significantly better, while the other is evidently worse. With home-ice advantage on their side, too, we’re picking the Maple Leafs to win.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs player markets

With -112 odds at both sides of this wager, we’re really liking the Nylander side of it.

The talented Maple Leafs’ winger is heating up ahead of the postseason. He has five points in his last four games, including three in an outing against this very Lightning squad. Stamkos is entering with decent form, also, scoring four points in his last five.

Nylander, however, holds the edge in the season series scoring race. He piled up six points in three games against Tampa Bay while Stamkos totalled three.

The season point race was close, too, but it’s Nylander who outpaced Stamkos 87-84.

Last postseason’s results also favour the Toronto winger. Only Auston Matthews (9), Mitch Marner (8) and Nikita Kucherov (8) finished with more points than Nylander in the series. Stamkos was underwhelming with just four points.

With the odds being equal, we think there’s a slight edge siding with Nylander.

We’re giving Toronto plenty of love so far in our write-up, but we’d be foolish to not expect at least some of the Maple Leafs’ experience in the playoffs.

One way or another, this series is going the distance. Home-ice advantage was real for both of these squads this past year. With line matching becoming even more pertinent in the postseason, winning on the road could be a tall task for either team.

It wouldn’t be the least surprising to see these squads hold serve at home throughout.

Toronto has gone to seven games in four consecutive playoff series.