Maple Leafs picks and props vs. Rangers Dec. 12: Bet the over on William Nylander's shot prop

The Toronto Maple Leafs close out a two-game, two-night road trip in the Big Apple.

The pregame narrative: The New York Rangers are looking to give the Leafs their second loss in as many nights. William Nylander is a good bet to go over his shot total and Artemi Panarin can take advantage of Toronto's third-string goalie.

NHL oddsas of 1:01 p.m. ET on 12/12/2023.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Rangers

Best Bet: Nylander over 3.5 shots (-125)

Nylander has failed to hit this mark in back-to-back games and this is a strong buy-low spot.

Before the last two, he recorded four-plus shots in five straight games. The overall stats support the 27-year-old's case to beat this total as he's hit this mark in 17/25 games this season (68%) and averages 4.32 shots per contest.

The Rangers are the Metropolitan's best team but rank 14th in shots allowed per game (30.1), so Toronto should be able to get the puck on net. Nylander topped this total in two of three games against New York last season.

There should be chances out there for a player who loves to shoot.

Quick pick

Panarin to score 2+ points (+114): Toronto plays a back-to-back and Joseph Woll is already sidelined with an injury.

So in steps Martin Jones for his second appearance of the season. In five games with the Toronto Marlies, Jones has an .870 save percentage and a 3.37 goals-against average.

It wouldn't be surprising if the league's second-best powerplay takes advantage of its chances tonight and Panarin is the focal point.

In addition, the Rangers have the eighth-highest shooting percentage (10.9%). Look for their point leader, who has recorded multiple points in half his games this season, to have a big one tonight.

Spencer Closs writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. The Star's parent company has a minority interest in NorthStar Bets.