March Madness Final Four Odds

sportsbookreview.com

01 March 2023

March has arrived, and it won’t be long until we are filling out our brackets. But who will be heading to the Final Four in Houston? Read on as we track the March Madness futures for the 2022-23 college basketball season to help with your NCAAB picks.

Let the madness begin. With the calendar flipping to March, the 2023 NCAA Tournament is just around the corner. This year’s dance should be as unpredictable as ever, meaning we might have multiple sleepers make it to Houston for the Final Four.

The Houston Cougars are the favorites in the March Madness odds and in the futures market to reach the final weekend. With the opportunity to play in front of a favorable crowd, they have a solid chance of cutting down the nets this year. Will we get that storybook ending or will another team come out of nowhere?

Here;s our look at the best 2023 Final Four odds, along with some potential picks to win it all (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook).

Final Four odds 2023

Take a look at the college basketball conference title odds from our top-rated sportsbooks below.

Final Four best bets

Baylor (+450 via DraftKings) - March 1
San Diego State (+2800 via FanDuel) - March 1

Final Four odds 2023: Favorites

Houston (+130 via DraftKings)

Houston needs four wins in the NCAA Tournament to make it back to Houston for this year's Final Four, which would probably feel like a movie for head coach Kelvin Sampson's squad. The Cougars have been the top team in the country by nearly every metric, so it is no surprise that they are the betting favorites here.

But are these odds too pricey without even knowing the bracket? Bart Torvik's TourneyCast tool as of March 1 gives Houston a 40.4% chance of making it to the final weekend. This DraftKings price, which is better than FanDuel's even-money offering, has an implied probability of 43.5%.

Considering Houston has faced just one top 60 KenPom team since Christmas, I'd rather pass on this price before the bracket is even released.

Kansas (+190 via DraftKings)

We don't know the draw just yet, but KU's chances of reaching the Final Four would exponentially improve if this team lands in the Midwest Region. Why is that? Because the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight would take place at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri, home of the Big 12 Tournament and an annual non-conference game for KU.

The Jayhawks have won the best league in the sport, lead the country in Quad 1 wins, and had to replace two first-round draft picks from last year's national championship team. They certainly have a case to end up in the Midwest, but this +190 price doesn't interest me if they are forced to play out West instead. I have legitimate concerns about KU's depth in March.

Alabama (+200 via DraftKings)

The Crimson Tide were the first team to knock off the Houston Cougars when the two teams met in December. Alabama has only four losses on the year and is led by the best freshman in the nation in Brandon Miller, who is a future NBA lottery pick.

One thing to be concerned about is Alabama's age, as this team ranks 265th in the country in average D-1 experience. It remains to be seen how this team will handle the bright lights come tourney time.

Final Four odds 2023: Contenders

UCLA (+300 via DraftKings)

It feels like three No. 1 seeds are locked in by the three teams we have already mentioned, leaving the final No. 1 seed up for grabs. That spot will likely come down to UCLA and Purdue over the coming days, but the team that earns it will certainly have a better chance of reaching the Final Four.

The Bruins rank No. 2 overall via Ken Pomeroy's ratings. Similar to Houston, though, the Bruins have not really been battle-tested while storming through the Pac-12. UCLA is 1-2 against teams ranked inside the top 40 on KenPom since the calendar flipped to 2023.

I don't blame anyone for giving the Bruins a pass due to their experience, but this team has some concerns heading into the dance.

Purdue (+300 via FanDuel)

Speaking of concerns, Purdue is spiraling at the worst time with four losses in February. Zach Edey is a dominant force inside, but this backcourt is young and can be exposed in March.

It has been a long time since a Big Ten team cut down the nets, but that trend is unlikely to end unless the Boilermakers are able to right the ship down the stretch.

Baylor (+450 via DraftKings)

They say guard play is crucial to a deep run in March, which is good news for a Baylor squad that boasts the best backcourt in the country. Good luck to opposing teams trying to stop the talented trio of Keyontae George, Adam Flagler, and LJ Cryer in a tournament setting.

The problem is, the Bears have struggled to get stops of their own all season. They rank outside the top 80 in adjusted defensive efficiency. While that defense isn't good enough to win it all, it wouldn't surprise me if this offense burned down the nets en route to winning four games.

Final Four odds 2023: Long shots

Indiana (+850 via FanDuel)

Trayce Jackson-Davis has been a monster this season. He and Jalen Hood-Schifino can shred teams in the pick-and-roll. The Hoosiers still have just a 4% chance of reaching the Final Four, per Torvik's TourneyCast, suggesting the market is too high on a team that hasn't made it past the Sweet 16 since 2002.

TCU (+700 via DraftKings)

Don't let TCU get in a track meet. Led by point guard Mike Miles Jr., the Horned Frogs rank in the 99th percentile in the country in transition, according to Synergy Sports Technology. TCU's fatal flaw is its shooting in the half-court, as a team that ranks 354th in the country in 3-point percentage is unlikely to win enough games to make a deep run.

Creighton (+650 via FanDuel)

The trendy preseason dark horse, Creighton has underperformed this year en route to suffering double-digit losses. The market will jump back in as soon as the Bluejays show any signs of life, so they are a pass for me since there will never be enough value here.

San Diego State (+2800 via FanDuel)

I'm sitting on a 100/1 ticket for the Aztecs to win it all from last summer, but there is no reason to pounce on their current 80/1 price. Instead, let's take a stab at the 28/1 offering at FanDuel for San Diego State to make the Final Four.

San Diego State should be a No. 5 seed heading into the NCAA Tournament, according to Bracket Matrix. While we don't know the Aztecs' draw, they are ranked No. 17 overall via KenPom and there is reason to believe they could be favored in each of their first two games.

The Mountain West Conference hasn't fared well in the NCAA Tournament in recent years, but San Diego State can help put an end to that narrative this March.

Recent March Madness winners

March Madness FAQs

Who won March Madness last year?

TheKansas Jayhawks defeated the North Carolina Tar Heels 72-69 to win the 2022NCAA Tournament.

When does March Madness 2023 start?

Selection Sunday is set to occur on Sunday, March 12, 2023, four days before the tournament kicks off on March 16. The first round will be played on March 16 and 17.