March Madness picks for Thursday, plus Houston to win it all

Syracuse

14 March 2023

March Madness picks for Thursday, plus Houston to win it all

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March Madness has officially arrived as the NCAA Tournament kicks off tonight with the First Four. While the First Four games are certainly an exciting venture, nothing hits quite the same as the first day of the Round of 64, which will be Thursday.

In this article, we’ve rounded up our favorite March Madness picks for day one of the NCAA Tournament, as well as our 2023 champion pick. Additionally, we have detailed the most generous new-user bonus out there at Bet365 Sportsbook.

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Our two favorite plays of day one, concerning March Madness picks against the spread, are both in the South Region. The first favorite play is #13 Furman to cover +5.5 (-110) against #4 Virginia. Furman had been knocking on the NCAA Tournament door several times in recent years, before squandering clinching opportunities. This year will be their first appearance in 43 years, and the long wait to reach this stage might just give the Paladins an edge in a matchup with a vulnerable Virginia squad.

Furman is led by senior guard Mike Bothwell and senior forward Jalen Slawson. These two paced a prolific, dynamic offense that put up 82 points per game this season, as they combined to average 34 points on 54% shooting from the field. These two aren’t just two of the best players from the SoCon conference, but two of the best mid major players in this year’s NCAA Tournament.

While they are a streaky three-point shooting team, they take a ton of shots from beyond the arc, which is exactly how you have to play to take down Tony Bennet’s signature pack line defense at Virginia. With two senior leaders leading the charge, Furman is more than capable of hitting enough shots to make the slow-paced Virginia team, who plays in a lot of close games, sweat and pick up their tempo. A key injury to Virginia forward Ben Vander Plas hurts their offensive dynamic and their interior defense.

Our second favorite play of the day is to take #5 San Diego State to cover -5 (-110) against #12 College of Charleston. Don’t overthink this one. Though both of these teams spent time in the AP Top 25 Poll this year and Charleston won 30+ games, this matchup does not bode well for Pat Kelsey’s squad and will likely end their terrific season.

Where Furman has a chance to speed Virginia up or at least keep the game close from start to finish, Charleston should have a much more difficult time speeding up San Diego State. Charleston prefers to play in transition and jack three-pointers; however, San Diego State allows the lowest initial transition attempt rate to their opponents in the entire country, per Hoop-Math. They pair this with a top-10 three-point percentage defense in the entire country, per KenPom.

While Charleston enjoys getting to the glass and passing out to hit second chance threes, San Diego State is one of the best rebounding teams in the country and offers many big, mature bodies down low to wrestle with. San Diego State should make life difficult for Charleston in this matchup, which is why we suggest taking the Aztecs to cover -5 on Thursday. Bet on either of these March Madness picks after you .

While Bet365 currently doesn’t have player props up for this game, the possibilities for player props in the #10 Penn State vs. #7 Texas A&M game are endless. Our favorite, however, is for Andrew Funk of Penn State to go over on three-pointers made.

We are extremely comfortable betting the over here as high as 3.5, though his line will likely be set at 2.5. The reason we are so confident in this particular prop with Funk, and even Seth Lundy too, is because Penn State is the second-most dependent team from deep in the entire country. Funk led the Big Ten in threes made with over 100 this year, while still shooting over 40% from deep.

Not only will he hoist most of his attempts from beyond the arc, but in this particular matchup he should get plenty of opportunities. The Aggies beg teams to shoot from deep. Nearly 37% of opponents’ points come three, which is 22nd most in the country. Surely, they will adjust their defense somewhat in this matchup, but Funk will still have his opportunities and we expect him to make the most of them.

While it may not be a flashy March Madness pick, we like the betting favorite, Houston, to cut down the nets when this is all said and done. This is almost completely contingent on the health of senior guard Marcus Sasser but given his own confidence in being ready to go and Houston’s recent tournament success, we are counting on head coach Kelvin Sampson and the Cougars to go all the way in 2023.

Houston’s backcourt of Jamal Shead, Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark has all the championship backcourt ingredients one could ask for. They defend, they make big shots, and they get to the rim and create for their teammates. Pair this with the physical, tenacious frontcourt presences of Jarace Walker and J’Wan Roberts and you have an extremely balanced starting five.

The biggest credit to Houston is that they don’t beat themselves and they make life miserable for their opponents on offense and on the glass. Their physicality and depth wear you down, and right when you think you can claw back, Sasser buries a three, Shead gets to the rim for an easy layup or Roberts and Walker are grabbing offensive rebounds and scoring.

Houston’s offensive ability to attack the lane and either put up a good shot or kick out to an open shooter for a good shot, is uncanny. Their off-ball movement is some of the most methodical in all of college basketball. On defense, they extend ball pressure far out, and if you break that, they funnel you into a packed lane.

Houston may not be the most talented team in the field, but they could be the toughest, grittiest and most reliable team in the sport.

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For the spread odds and times for our two March Madness picks for Thursday, see below: