Mariners-Astros prediction: Picks, odds on Friday, August 18

Two of hottest teams in all of baseball collide in a crucial divisional showdown as the Houston Astros (70-52) welcome the Seattle Mariners (66-55) to town this weekend for a three-game set. First pitch of Friday’s opener is set for 8:10 p.m. ET from Minute Maid Park. It’ll be a battle of impressive rookies on the mound, as Seattle goes with Bryce Miller (7-4, 4.04 ERA) while Houston counters with J.P. France (9-3, 2.74).

The Astros enter as -155 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Mariners at +130. The run total is set at 8.5.

Mariners-Astros picks: Friday, August 18

Injury report

Mariners

Out: SS J.P. Crawford (concussion protocol), OF Jarred Kelenic (foot), C Tom Murphy (thumb), SP Bryan Woo (forearm)

Astros

Out: RP Phil Maton (elbow), 1B Jose Abreu (spine), OF/DH Michael Brantley (shoulder)

Starting pitchers

Bryce Miller vs. J.P. France

Miller’s suffered a few hiccups since a sensational start to his MLB career — eight runs against the Yankees in May, seven against the Rangers in June, six against the Twins and Red Sox in back-to-back starts in late July and early August — but the rookie has shown an impressive ability to bounce back and adjust as the league adjusts to him. The righty still lives and dies by his overpowering four-seam fastball, which he throws some 64% of the time, but his slider is a make-or-break pitch; if he has it working at all, he becomes much harder to hit. He’s allowed just two earned runs while striking out 12 over 10.2 innings across his last two outings, and he fired six shutout innings in his first start against the Astros back in May.

A 14th-round pick way back in 2018, France wasn’t on anybody’s prospect radar to start the season. But injuries to Lance McCullers Jr., Jose Urquidy and Luis Garcia gave him a shot in Houston’s rotation, and he hasn’t looked back since. The righty has allowed more than two runs just once since the start of July, most recently firing seven innings of two-run ball against the Angels this past weekend. He isn’t the most overpowering arm (13th-percentile K rate) but he fills up the strike zone and has just enough deception to keep the ball away from barrels. His Major League debut actually came against Seattle back in May, when he allowed no runs on just three hits over five innings of work.

Over/Under pick

Both of these offenses are swinging the bat well right now, but I’m still going with the under on Friday night. Both Miller and France have pitched well against their respective opponents earlier this season, and they’re both coming off very strong starts. Seattle and Houston are two righty-heavy lineups that have been more effective against lefties all year, and I’m banking on pitching to win out tonight.

Pick: Under 8.5

Moneyline pick

Far be it from me to bet against the absolute heater Julio Rodriguez is on right now — he has nine hits over his last two games and carried Seattle to a win on Thursday — but the Astros have the deeper and more dangerous lineup 1-through-9 right now. I expect Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker and crew to do just enough damage to pick up a win in a tight, fun game.